Would you join a first time PM pod?
Title. Niche industry but something I’m interested in doing. How would you go about assessing the risk and properly diligencing? How do you sus out if someone has a sustainable process and/or assess level of mentorship quality?
Currently in a decent seat on private side and will likely get VP promote next year, but job is extremely boring and know I want to do publics. Have held off on doing MMs since they’re always recruiting and thought a proven SM with duration would be a better initial learning environment, but got to final round in a few SM processes recently without converting and honestly a bit burnt out on recruiting and just want to get out at this point. Seems like an ok learning opportunity to be first Analyst on the team so you get sole access, but obviously unproven as a PM. Would you take this risk or stick it out in PE for another 1-1.5 years for something else? What’s the real likelihood of pod blowing up in less than 2 years and being forced to leave the industry altogether (don’t really mind the job security aspect but don’t want to be forced out of industry)?
Depends on whether the shop has a culture of putting analysts from blown up pods elsewhere or letting them go. But TBH, for the most part no one will fault you for a pod blow up as an analyst and you'll likely be able to find work elsewhere.
Would be for one of the big 3 MMs, so not sure if there’s major variance across platforms.
what is GMV, vol, and PM experience level? you are missing crucial things here, how are we supposed to answer
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High. 35-50%+? Just guessing.
Team shutting down because PM leaves or is fired within 3 years? Not likely, but common. Call it 30-40%. You being forced out of the industry? Unless you want to quit or do a horrific job with low work ethic, around zero. Nobody blames the first time analyst for a team going down, but it can slow down your career trajectory if you have to change coverage/firm (new ramp and/or non-compete)
I’ve seen some truly terrible analysts get 3rd/4th/5th chances in the industry, anyone with a good head on their shoulders will be fine
If your PM earned a bad reputation, it can be tough. Because people will wonder if you learned anything.
In certain firms or pods the work may be highly specific to that firm's process, and after 2-3 years there you are not viewed as a fresh grad anymore and BD will not put you in the fresh grad bucket. All big firms now have high demand for fresh grads and almost none for more senior but non-PM hires. So it's quite possible to be unable to go anywhere else afterwards. One of my old shops was like this and nobody there worked in the industry again, with one exception 5+ years later. Another case where I've heard of this is Bridgewater.
Definitely at the higher end of the risk spectrum (also carries greater rewards fwiw).
Things you could consider: how many years did he spend as an analyst? Did he move around a lot? Was he running a carve?
Ultimately if it doesn’t pan out, you will find out at some point in late year 2 / year 3. At that point, you will not be excluded from the industry, MMs will be happy to hire you but it’s possible you walk away with this stint with very little from a financial/monetary perspective
OP here - thanks for the info. Can you elaborate on greater rewards aspect? Is it really that much better than being the 20th analyst in an established pod obviously assuming a smaller book?
In terms of his background, I haven’t done enough DD yet but know he’s spent 10+ years as an analyst/sr analyst/sector head across various MMs.
In case this works out, your status as employee number 1, should position you well for a more lieutenant type role down the road. Your PM will likely start seeking your thoughts too on team direction, strategy, recruitment, etc. On top of that you’re more likely to get a bigger piece of the financial pie since you’re so early.
In a team with 10+ analysts, there are likely already sub PMs that have the trust and recognition of the PM. Carving out space for yourself is tougher in that world.
Yes but only if they are PJT RSSG/GS TMT to APO/BX/KKR to tiger cub to pod PMs. These guys just got the IT factor. They just know how to win.
You definitely don't have the it factor
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