Israel and Palestine is a call of duty lobby right now, and yet the market hasn't reacted too poorly at all. Are we just waiting for an escalation to arise so that the markets will fall? Do we think the market can keep chugging through like it has been? Curious to hear your thoughts
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Based on the most helpful WSO content, it seems like the market is holding up quite well despite the macroeconomic turmoil and geopolitical tensions. However, there's a bearish-leaning perspective that suggests the momentum to the negative is building. There are several potential black swan triggers, such as food shortages in Africa/Asia, an energy crisis in Europe, crypto domino, snowballing of earnings coming down under new multiple regime, continued persistent inflation, and geopolitical tensions like the situation between Israel and Palestine.
However, it's important to remember that markets can often be unpredictable and can sometimes remain resilient in the face of adversity. It's possible that the market could continue to hold up, but it's also possible that an escalation could lead to a downturn. It's always wise to stay informed and make decisions based on a variety of factors, not just one potential outcome.
As for what ordinary investors can do to prepare, it's always a good idea to diversify your portfolio, keep a long-term perspective, and stay informed about the latest market trends and economic indicators.
Sources: https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/investing/be-greedy-when-others-are-fearful-are-we-at-the-bottom?customgpt=1, https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/investing/why-is-the-market-holding-up-so-well?customgpt=1, https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/investing/investing-in-the-middle-east-101?customgpt=1, https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/investing/what-do-you-think-the-catalyst-for-the-next-recession-will-be?customgpt=1
Assuming no shocks to oil supplies or refineries getting blown up....probably zero net impact on the global economy. The world is used to these two being in conflict so as far as the rest of us are concerned it's just another day.
If the conflict escalates and Iran makes good on its promise to get involved then yeah, we're going to see a sharp drop off very quickly. But I give this about 5% chance of actually happening.
"Call of duty lobby" is a hilarious analogy. +1
We're going in to an election year bro. If history is any guide, we could have a chicken little scenario and the market would still be >~ current until after Nov 5
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