What are you investing in right now?
As the title says, how are you all thinking about the markets? With further rate cuts looming, incredibly high tech valuations, GS recent report expecting a 3% S&P return for the next couple of years, there seems to be a lot going on.
How are you thinking about the markets? What are you looking at? I don't mean institutional investments, but for your own accounts (i.e., instruments most people have access to).
Personally, I try to invest in companies that I think are capitalizing on market trends and will be able to sustain growth for the next two - three years. I don't trust myself enough to think of a longer time horizon.
Based on the most helpful WSO content, here are some insights on how to think about the markets and what to consider for personal investments:
Understanding Market Trends
Interest Rates and Market Impact:
High Tech Valuations:
S&P 500 Projections:
Investment Strategies
Capitalizing on Market Trends:
Diversification:
Research and Analysis:
Practical Steps
Stay Informed:
Evaluate Growth Potential:
Risk Management:
By focusing on these strategies and staying informed, you can make more informed investment decisions and potentially achieve better returns for your personal accounts.
Sources: Thinking Like an Investor, Thinking Like an Investor, how do i "know the markets"?, I Want To Get Into Investing. How To Improve Your Knowledge Of Markets?, How to improve your knowledge of markets?
Most if not all my net worth is in VOO, every bonus i sink into more voo when the check hits. I dont try to time anything or get cute. I keep 5-10% of my PA outside of index to trade markets in a discretionary way but thats because i enjoy it as a hobby but I dont expect to outperform the index
following
GS, like all major firms, are absolutely god awful at forecasting, they constantly put out these things based off of regression analyses with r-squareds 0.5 saying equities will be X% return over this time period
the equity market has been up over a 20y time horizon 100% of the time over the past 100 years. since I don't plan on retiring for 30+ years, I'm long and all in
if I'm wrong, I don't use leverage, so I don't care. I'm diversified with a US and quality bias
if you're thinking over the next 2-4y only, read everything you can about stan druckenmiller, that's his cup of tea. you will need to lose all emotion, all anchoring bias, and develop insane mental flexibility. one of the most fascinating things about him is he usually buys something before he fully understands it, something like invest then digest or capitalize then analyze, very difficult for the typical wall street egghead like the ones that write forecasts like what you mention or have CFA/MBA/CAIA after their name
This sounds like a buy and hold cope strategy lol wtf
what specifically do you mean by cope
why is what I said lol funny
why the wtf in there
explain yourself better or ask a more coherent question please, I'm confused on what you're driving at
I agree with this. I think part of the reason they published this was to catch a headline (which it worked, the whole industry talked about their report), but I don't agree with it. If you read the report it's overall pretty weak and they even admit to being considerably wrong in their last round of forecasts. I think we could see a little bit more muted returns compared to the 13% or so we've seen in the last decade, but I don't think we will see 3-4% returns like Goldman suggests with bonds outperforming cap weighted equities.
the older I get the more I think that absent behavioral dispositions to the contrary, the best strategy if retired is to have 2-5y of living expenses in cash and the rest in stocks. while working maybe 1-2y max, but investment grade fixed income outside of the brief blip we had with volcker is pretty much useless for 99% of people
it serves its purpose in endowment investing or if someone's chicken little, but they are by and large a net negative to individual investors without any personality traits that make it beneficial (e.g. protecting them from bailing out at the wrong time)
Dont have too much savings (low double digits) but also manage my parents account. I have a slightly different goal and term. I am dumping my money into O (realty income) for the relative stability and monthly cash flow. 2-3 year outlook. For parents account, holding a simple split of SCHD, VOO, NVDA, cash. 10 year+ outlook for that one.
This year was not a good year for me in terms of relative performance. Even outside of my larger than suggested cash position (I keep 1.5-2 years worth of expenses on-hand as money-market cash in case of a layoff), I mostly bought value, with an edge to energy, and have woefully underperformed. The lone bright spots have been $PM because of the Zyn craze, and $LNG. The speculative stuff I bought a long time ago, like BTC/ETH, are all up like crazy since Trump's election.
For next year, I'm still really bullish on O&G medium-term. It can take a while for a thesis to pan out, but I don't see any less reliance on oil in the next 5-10 years, especially as emerging markets become more of a factor and replace any potential demand from wealthier countries that could theoretically move to EVs, etc. The good producers of O&G have break evens between $40-50, so they're still making money even at these relatively lower, but stable price ranges of $60-80. Further, from what I've read, production in the Permian, which drove the relative oversupply in the market last decade, is starting to peak/decline. Again, this will take time to bear out, but I'm a big buyer of O&G if it gets to ~$50. I also don't want to speculate on the unknowable, but if there's increased geopolitical tension, or even just an overall pickup in demand (i.e. economy breaks out), I could easily see oil trending toward $80-90 in a heartbeat.
Other than this, I don't really see too many bargains in this market. My main concern is protecting my assets from inflation. Cash is trash in that scenario, so I don't really see what else to do but buy $VOO and maybe some Gold/BTC as a hedge? It feels like a correction is due soon, but I've been saying this for 18 months and have been proven wrong so far...
OP here. Appreciate the insight on oil...I think that is an interesting perspective. Follow up question - judging on your response you seem to be a value oriented investor (like WB said "buy great companies at fair prices not fair companies at great prices"). What are your thoughts then on tech and growth? I recently added / increased positions in the M7 stocks because I think AI is one of these technologies where we really don't know the ceiling. Yea the multiples are high, even at dot com levels, but could a systematically higher trading multiple in the tech space make sense? Do you avoid these assets all together?
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