When is Candy Crush going public?
I don't see a date as when they are actually listing, anybody with an estimate?
I can't wait to short this thing.
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Are they actually filing? I thought that was just speculation or at most, informal discussions. If they are actually making an offering...I shudder to think.
No kidding man, i wanted to post a link for an article from the guardian but wouldn't let me just yet, but yep, its coming.
Why short it? You literally have no data/information to support the tradeopinion. And if you had, there would be no shares to borrow...
You are right, but the general consensus is best described by "their mentality is all 1999 tech bubble again", something like that, I mean it appear that they are listing to cash out. But of course I wouldn't be shorting like on the day of trading, like you said I have nothing to support that decision just yet, who knows if they are actually listing for some ambitious causes? By the way man, I love options too, its pretty much the only thing I've traded thus far.
yeah, possibly the best asset class to trade in my opinion. Shame few retail traders know about them... what do they know bout' 80% chances of profit...
You replied to me although I said nothing about shorting but I was thinking it. So...I guess if you want an argument for that position, all you have to do is look at the cycle of popularity with games like this. Almost all of King's revenue comes from Candy Crush. If Candy Crush becomes uncool all of a sudden...
Candy Crush maker KING now valued at around 10x earnings (Originally Posted: 03/29/2014)
On net income of 560k, the price has dropped to 19 from 22.5, giving it a valuation of around 6B.
Bears say the company has a 1 hit wonder in Candy Crush, bulls say there is little downside on the low valuation.
Thoughts?
Net income is only relevant to the extent that it gives you an idea of earnings potential when the company is firing on all cylinders... 75% of active users are Candy Crush players, and 78% of bookings (proxy for revenue) come from Candy Crush. That means that as Candy Crush continues to decline in popularity (not because it sucks, but because its continuing along the natural life cycle of a game, which at this point is past the peak), it has to be replaced with newer games. If they report a growth in bookings next quarter, the stock should trade back near the IPO price, and if they couple with new game announcements, the stock will shoot through that easily. Conversely if there is a decline in bookings sequentially coupled with a lack of new content announced, stock could trade in the low-mid teens. I am predisposed to the first scenario.
It's an easy short, along with Zynga and any other company that tries to raise a multi-billion valuation off of one viral (very simplistic) game.
Agree. EA games with all its established franchises is valued at 8.83 Bn. King is overvalued as shit.
I just don't see this ending well for King. One hit wonder.
The business model of mobile gaming is very different than that of an EA. The cost structure is much, much lower for a KING because you benefit from tremendous economies of scale. Your fixed cost base in minimal. You have 100 engineers housed in one office, and nothing more. In 2013, EA had 6% margins, vs. near 40% for King. If you can sustain your user base for a period of time and create a loyal user base, then you are gold. Every time King or Zynga (a couple years ago) created a new game, or a new iteration of an existing game, it shoots to the Top 10 most downloaded apps within days because they are very well recognized franchises at this point. I don't disagree, it's just another perspective.
I agree with your analysis, but this is a shit business imo because I don't really see any signs of longer term customer captivity. the userbase is loyal to a game/franchise, not to the company behind it. the economies of scale are there, but it's local, I think. They are only are applicable to each game, and, without customer captivity, you're a sitting duck in a business model that's hits driven.
shares available for short yet? whats the rate? anyone know?
All in. You guys have it wrong- going to put my kids through college on this investment............ Just kidding
as many of you already highlighted, basically it's a double bet: keep the user base of candy crush saga (but trust me if they don't change the level structure of the game it is unlikely to happen) and the ability to bake new games at least as successful as their crown jewel. and by looking at the numbers it will be hard to pull off, especially the second. even if they manage to do so, the risk is quite high and in my opinion it not factored in in the actual price. nonetheless, web 2.0 tales have great success and it never fails to amaze the grasp they have on many investors so catching a falling knife with a short is indeed just as troublesome. i would simply stay out of it. but then again i am not a professional!
Apparently candy crush just copied another game: http://metro.co.uk/2014/02/13/candy-crush-saga-makers-to-sue-game-they-…
These games have been around longer than I can remember. They make the 1990s Mario for Game Boy look high tech.
I just wished it would've popped on Wed/Thurs....an easy short IMO. Please keep these IPO's coming.
7 New IPOs this week, and a lot of earnings announcements
This shows how important it is to have a brand name, although they begun advertising for their new games on the TV here where I live, is that a sign of a good thing to come ?.
"Their advertising goes from the hit makers of candy crush comes a new game...."
here's the original from 1994.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shariki
Also, it seems like a better bet than workday.
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