2025 Year-End Macro: How HelioInvest Evaluates Italy’s Shift to Core-ish Carry
The penultimate session of 2025 is proving a point we’ve long held at HelioInvest: Italy is shed its "periphery" skin. With the BTP–Bund spread anchored at ~70bp, the risk premium reflects structural fiscal credibility rather than speculative volatility. Founder Alessandro Di Monteverdi (ex-JPM Risk) notes that the $4.5tn global M&A rebound this year has created a significant tailwind for Italian mid-cap PE exits. For those of you tracking the LBO models for 2026, keep an eye on the EUR/USD at $1.177; it’s redefining cross-border valuation benchmarks.
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