Asia - Sectors with largest deal flow in next 5 years?
Which sectors do you see having the greatest deal flow in the next 5 years in Asia?
I'd guess tech, basic materials, health care (in that order).
TMT
Industrials.
tmt.. look at maxis' ipo... malaysia's biggest
did maxis make the sims?
What? ... Maxis is malaysia's largest telco ... you're a goddamn idiot
Maxis Software made sims ... and is completely out of context
Also look at online gaming and NB manufacturing firms.
that's cool that maxis also makes cell phones and stuff. they should make the sims for mobile phones, it would totally sell.
Consider industry consolidation in China and any trickle-down effects of the stimulus last year?
what you guys think about FIG in Asia?
PJC maxis doesnt make cell phones its like the AT&T of malaysia ... FIG in asia is just bank recaps - its a decent field i suppose
online gaming is a joke. Just because shanda games IPO'ed
^ Correct me if i am wrong but I figured online gaming just took off and it has a brighter future than other tech firms in Asia given the high growth rate, high margins, and huge internet market in China. We are not just talking about GAME but also tencent, CYOU, PWRD, giant interative..etc. They are all doing good.
I am not familiar with FIG. I would assume the ranking of deal flow/size would be TMT/FIG>CHC/GIG? I meant overall market. I am also choosing the group. Which one should I do?
^^ All those companies are already public .... they all trade above peers with some PEs ridiculously like 80+ ... and the market is super saturated.
Also, this is why GAME tanked and is below its original price ... Finally, gaming pays no fees. If you're depending the future of your ibank or even your tech group on some gaming clients ... you're sht out of luck
FIG will have big flow as the China banks will have lots of activity ... by why you said CHC / GIG ... you work at MS?
Gordons what "peers" are you referring to on gaming when comparing their PE?
My bank put Consumer and Hearthcare together, thats what i meant CHC. I assume when you said " 6) Consumer is hit or miss", you meant simply consumer excluding Healthcare?
I agree visibility of FIG in first half of 2010 is clear and we see big deals in the pipeline, but how about in 3-5 years? I heard the modeling with FIG is quite different from other groups, meanning once I get in there it would hard to get out.
solars321, speaking of M&A in Asia, in genaral (1) China clients are price sensitive (2) big deals happened in outbound transaction.
Most of the business in China will be financings - Chinese companies need money. Cross border M&A is the next top theme b/c thats what tehy're going to use that money for. But as the economy ticks up, organic growth / government stimulus will drive everything else here. The cycle hasn't hit the top yet like it has in teh U.S. in terms of business development so the amt of domestic M&A, etc won't be as large as expected
IF you're in Asia AND you want to do straight corp fin,
Do
1) Nat Res / Power (power if you're in SE asia) as the resources thing will be a big theme for China and other EM going into 2010 2) FIG - Big banks, pure volume wise if the big 3 do some deals, you got yourself 100mm in fees and those deals take a long time. Financials in general are going to raise money in 2010 ... AIA, ABC, etc and the other ones just announced they need cash to boost their CAR 3) GIG - Small SOE industrials and alt energy companies are expanding and will need to be acquired, pre-ipo financing, PE money and ultimately IPO 4) TMT - More Taiwan / Korea in terms of Domestic M&A as the more developed / healthy guys take out the little ones 5) Real estate will probably have a good amt of business but atm, all they're doing is IPO / Follow-ons to raise funds to buy more landbanks. The amt of fundraising in HK for real estate companies is astounding .... and they're all trading at a signfiicant discount to NAV atm and PPM in mainland is quite low (and the moeny is fueling the bubble) 6) Consumer is hit or miss ... fairly cyclical and pretty boring if you ask me
Did I miss any groups?
M&A execution teams in Asia are not same as U.S. ... in general 1) not verticalized (so good exp) 2) Boring ... all you do is make process charts, buyer list, seller list, lots of coordination. Sure you look at models but you don't actually drive the models much. The senior M&A guys with experience basically do it from their head
In terms of countries, China, Russia and Korea(unless they enter a war)
Infrastructure is probably a big one too, especially in China.
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