Seen a lot of speculative reports on the internet, Twitter etc re an investment bank about to go bust. Word is it's Credit Suisse as CDS levels are worrying. Internal memo from the CEO today is Lehman esque. Thoughts?
Edit: Link to an article explaining ish here
| +190 | Just One More Year | 15 | 4h |
| +172 | Piper Sandler in talks to acquire PWP | 74 | 5d |
| +123 | UBS Appears to be Exploring Sale | 19 | 2d |
| +87 | Paradise Is Paradise | 8 | 1h |
| +77 | Drunk VP. How to manage? | 27 | 21h |
| +38 | How do I take my foot off the gas? (AN1) | 4 | 1d |
| +38 | Lazard US Views 2026/2027 | 13 | 1d |
| +32 | M&A is Paradise | 1 | 5d |
| +25 | Why did EVR succeed vs GHL or PWP that ended up getting acquired? | 7 | 2d |
| +24 | HR is starting to worry me, do I throw a hail mary during an upcoming chat with an MD? | 3 | 1h |
Career Resources
Get instant access to lessons taught by experienced private equity pros and bulge bracket investment bankers including financial statement modeling, DCF, M&A, LBO, Comps and Excel Modeling.
I def get all my reliable news from Litsavagefrfr69 and EBITDA420
Take a peek at their CDS spread right now lol…
This article does a good job covering what I’m talking about
https://www.ft.com/content/6104a699-fa7f-4a81-9c35-a9a2f8ff92d2
5yr CDS is implying 1% probability of default, so no.
Trading at double their peer set and European banks aren’t the most promising peer set to begin with
BBG terminal CDS cashflow window. Default Probability = 1-Survival Probability assuming 60% loss given default.
Of course they’re going to re-assure staff and say what they need to say to keep people in place…that’s in their best interest in the event of a sale/spin
No way they'll actually go under. People will probably be on the chopping block and maybe the sale of some divisions, but actually defaulting - no
Second this, especially if SNB steps in which seems highly likely in the event CS needs it. And SNB has no issues with their BS nor ability to borrow either
What does this look like for incoming FTs tho?
I wouldn’t know. I don’t think the outlook for the Ibank looks good - especially if they scale back / cease their financing appetite (which seems highly probable if not certain). There will be cuts and I’d wager they’ll impact most if not all layers and functions - unclear to which degrees across levels. If I was a betting man I’d say that junior analysts will do be part of the collateral to some level. All-in-all, if I were in your shoes I’d silently try to recruit elsewhere before the labor market for junior IB professionals deteriorates further. If that doesn’t work out, get your floaties out and peddle as hard as you can when you start
Thought this was gonna be a post about some new Australia office.
Yet another post from a current/incoming CS analyst I suppose. Even if the bank survives, A LOT of people will get axed in almost all imaginable scenario.
My 2 cents: Stop spamming WSO and just wait it out and see what happens to the bank and your job bruh. However it plays out, it will be a great life lesson for sure!
Eaque ipsam ex iste sint eaque tenetur. Omnis minus autem et accusamus qui fugiat facilis. Asperiores natus dolores atque ut repellat eos explicabo consequatur. Culpa eum mollitia eos unde. Quaerat qui quas ea nesciunt ipsum porro cupiditate.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus: 6 financial modeling lessons free ($199 value)
or Unlock with your social account...