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May 31, 2024
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Nah feel a lot less secure about my job now
If one bank fails we are all worse off. The fear factor alone can severely punish not just the industry, but the economy as a whole.
It is in everyone’s interest that CS keeps the ship afloat, even if they have grossly mismanaged the bank.
No fuck that. These are private enterprises. Some of them have been grossly mismanaged for over a decade.
Let the shitty banks fail. Let the banks that took outsized and unhedged risk fail.
If the economy has to hurt for a while, so be it. People will lose jobs and hurt for a while, and eventually move on to more economically productive roles.
This has become a bailout system in this country which is fundamentally incompatible with free markets and capitalism in general. For the first 230 years of this nation's history, banks and businesses failed and were consumed by others or discarded. Somewhere along the way, in the last 15 years that philosophy has changed.
This path is unsustainable.
The issue is that the private market is just as fucked as the public one. Hence why these banks are like this.
The idea of banks failing is not a recent trend, the FIDC deposit is almost 100 years old for a reason. While for someone like you (who is probably quite qualified) a bad recession is not the end of it all, for the average American it would be disastrous.
The last time the US let the market as sink deep as you would want us to allow, we ended up with the worst crisis since the Great Depression. And a lot of the pains the Western world saw afterwards, such a a polarization of politics or the rise of populism, are a direct consequence of that.
For someone in finance it may be easy to see the long run and understand economic cycles. For the average American who lives paycheck to paycheck (the vast majority), losing their jobs perhaps means pulling their kids out of college or losing their home.
We should change the system, agreed, but it would need to be a decades long project. Another big crisis would only sink us deeper.
Time to get out of your books, or maybe open the ones about externalities.
People who lose jobs = people lose their healthcare cover in the US. Literally drives mortality rates up.
Also lose homes, etc.
The only part or the economy that benefits from this sort of scandal is the cash rich 0.01% that can deploy capital in distressed opportunities. For for 80+% of the people, that means getting fucked by something that they have zero power on, and they won’t benefit much from the recovery either.
Banks have been failing for 150 years, sure, but we’re also at a highly consolidated point in time. Who gave a fuck when local bank of Tucson failed in 1907, outside of the neighbourhood?
Banks have so much aspects of being public utilities, they should (and are!) be regulated as such. Capital control, returns cap, which go hand in hand with the knowledge that the system won’t let them fail. That’s the meaning of « too big to fail ».
Look at the chaos caused on financial markets by SVB, now imagine a global bank like CS going down. Don't want that to happen
Why would anyone who works in finance be excited by the chaos of a major bank imploding?
Exactly, they are acting as if they are shorting the CS SIVB from the get-go, hindsight clowns. Little do they know they will not be able to bring bread to the table in no time if the entire financial system is about to collapse
just don't fucking dance
Edit: Guy^ changed his original comment claiming he was the fortunate one to have been shorting cs/svb and wanted to watch the collapse.
Because just about every body who posts "CS is going down! LFG!!!!" assumes that they'll keep their job in the event of an unexpected economic downturn. So usually overconfident morons with only a surface-level understanding of markets, macroeconomics, central banking, etc.
A major bank imploding actually hurts the other banks man.
Think of all the deals CS is in and the headaches it will cause lender groups.
The only sad part is that the idiots that ran CS and made millions will never be held accountable, never see prison and never make financial restitution for their awful decision making.
Makes you wish there was a tangible god sometimes.
A guy that can swoop in and dispense justice for once. I read some article that the CEO of SVB make like 10 bucks last year, it’s like these idiots get rewarded for taking unnecessary risk and never get punished for it.
Almost makes you think that the US judicial system actually does offer advantages to those with money and power…
mate there's no way you are 'excited for the chaos' such a dick thing to say- real people r gonna lose their jobs....
I enjoy how bank shareholders / investors are capitalist in bull markets and turn socialists in bear markets and look for backstops. If you want banks to be bailed out, fine, just don't start complaining about too much oversight / regulation if you do.
It's called hypocrisy and it's quite popular nowadays, not only in bank boardrooms. Some of my favorite examples:
we live in great times. 21st century is paradise.
CS will get capital if required from the Swiss National Bank: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2023-03-15/credit-suisse-in-cr…
So everything should be good for them if this goes the wrong way
Swiss NB doesn't have the firepower. CS has ~500bn in deposits, Switzerland's GDP is ~800bn. This is a massive fucking problem. The Swiss stayed out of the EU to their peril, and I think they're about to find out that you can't have your cake and eat it too. CS is too damn big with all the benefits of a small, regulation-lite, country.
Switzerland will go begging to the ECB and US in short order and will get nothing - there is zero political will to bail out a foreign bank in US, and the Swiss have thumbed their noses at the rest of Europe for decades. I see the way out of this being a merger (at gunpoint) with UBS.
I am nervous for UK banks as well, given their similar lack of fire power to backstop a global bank, but if anyone can do it, Rishi can.
Worked there. A part of me wants this bank to sink and take the whole european financial system down. Let's wait and look at how the situation unfolds.
Because European banking is pure bureaucracy and crony capitalism
CS will survive. Sweds won’t let it die
yes sweden, the infamous tax shelter
First the service industry, now the banking industry. Every industry i work in collapses shortly after getting my footing.
What should i get into next y’all? Slavery? Cobalt mining? Blood farming?
Worked at this firm. Can't say I'm surprised. Full of bureaucracy, internal fighting, and mid-level managers who are toxic, incompetent, and have no interest in developing new talent. Which is understandable given all the crap happening in recent years: the high performers have already jumped ship given the shitty bonuses. It's almost coming to a point that working at CS is viewed as a negative: all the scandals, the bonus installments joke, being left holding the bag in Archegos incident, etc. Also it's funny how the handled Archegos: they scrapped almost the entire prime brokerage team. PB is good business, it's just you don't have the risk management in place. But nah. The upper management team is actually decent, decent people and smart, but don't have the guts to trim the incompetent mid-level fat.
They have always been the most aggressive in pricing in many of the markets businesses, which gives them decent volume and revenue at the expense of margins and also leaves less margin for error.