It's time once again for annual predictions from Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners. Don't scoff'; the guy has been right about a lot of stuff, including timing the bottom of the market in March. This set of predictions may surprise some of you.
They run the gamut from Goldman Sachs going private to Tiger Woods reconciling with his wife and having another kid (Sarah Palin...not so much). While I can't say I agree with all 20 predictions, he definitely gets paid more than I do to make them, so do with that what you will.
As far as actionable info, he seems to think gold drops back to $900 an ounce. While I have a hard time believing that, I'm no longer long gold but I have started building a position in silver. The disparity between gold and silver is at an all-time high, and I think silver has to catch up. I'm predicting silver will hit $30 an ounce in 2010. And at-the-money $17 SLV calls good through January 2011 are only $260 each - a screaming buy in my opinion.
Kass also predicts the Fed will raise interest rates .50% at some point next year, in reaction to the Chinese central bank responding to inflation. He thinks the dollar will do very well against other world currencies, but he thinks the stock market will drop 10%. And he's bearish on housing and unemployment.
Overall, he has very well-reasoned arguments for each of his predictions. Any predictions WSO members would like to make?
Let me clarify something. I don't have a hard time believing gold will drop back to $900 an ounce ever, it's just hard for me to believe it will happen in the next 12 months. If it does, I'm a huge buyer. If Kass is right about the dollar, though, that would put a lot of pressure on gold, so anything's possible. I really think you can't miss with silver, though.
Here's another great article on 2010 predictions from the National Inflation Association:
http://inflation.us/top10predictions2010.html
I agree. Silver's def. the way to go going forward, but I reckon Gold around $950.00. I doubt the pressure is strong enough to push gold down to 900.
The 10% decline in the market also seems a bit bullish but let's just keep the fingers crossed.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Years to all!
The 10% decline in the market also seems a bit bullish but let's just keep the fingers crossed.
I don't see how the Democrats will win 2010 in a landslide ... history suggests that the Democratic Party is due for a big loss in November
Gold down, Dollar up highly feasible if not likely in short term.
All SEC and Communist DemoNcrat Party related commentary,
Please...No...Please...No...rinse, repeat.
I admire this guy's sheer ballsiness in making these predictions. Unfortunately, he's guaranteed to be dead wrong on a few of them.
I'd bet against democratic victory, Goldman going private, and a Tiger Woods recovery.
I think gold falling, dollar rising are pretty likely.
I think the most interesting one is...Goldman going private. While I'd be willing to make a pretty big bet against it (privatization would just create new probs in their relationship w/ the government imho), that'd be pretty sick.
The one i'm most apprehensive about is... Israel attacks Iran. Now thats a gamechanger.
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