Early Promote Down Firm vs Sticking it Out

I'm an associate two at a BB firm in NYC (GS, BARC, JPM) in ECM and have been offered a VP role "down-bank" at a DB, RBC, UBS level firm. Would be a 25% base-raise with a 100% guarantee bonus this year when I'm likely looking down the barrel of a 50% bonus at my current firm, given macro-backdrop.

Torn because I feel like BB money is better long-term, my current team is fine, and I don't really want to learn a new firm, but also don't want to ignore the early promote, money, etc. Is it that bad of an idea to go "down-bank" or should I stick it out?