Not sure if this is a phenomenon unique to my bank/group, but seems like attrition levels have been much lower than normal at the junior levels in IB. Historically, roughly half the MBA associates are gone by 2 years, and the actual number in my group has been much lower than that. Compounding this is the fact that a lot more analysts are hanging on to get promoted to associate, leading to a log jam at the associate level.
Assuming this is true, what do people think in terms of 1) what’s driving this, 2) implications for the industry, and 3) implications for juniors?
In terms of what is driving people to stay, the easy answer is the market is down. But it seems like things won’t bounce back for a while. Is there something else driving folks to stay? Lack of deal experience?
Banking is notorious for being an “up or out” culture, but if turnover continues to remain low at the junior levels, will this change? I’m worried promotions will become less and less guaranteed.
Do people view this trend reversing in the coming years? Did the same thing occur during prior downturns, and eventually the market bounced back and people left in droves? Or is the low attrition here to stay?
Did see one cycle of the above happening in 2020-2022 period when initially most analysts, ASOs and even VPs remained at place as COVID outbreak happened but as the market recovered people left in droves with the remaining having to bear the burden of too much work…nothing to worry in the long term, but in the short term, yeah, everyone’s on the firing line
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