Possibility of a European Megabank merger?

US BBs are dominating EU BBs, period. Current check up of notable EU BBs:

  • Deutsche Bank is currently bleeding to death, like real bad. Losing tremendous market share in all areas of IB. On top of that, has a huge backlog of litigations pending (currently have 5b euro in litigation reserves, will likely need more).
  • Barclays is pretty much cutting all IB divisions outside of the US and UK. Essentially non-existent in Asia now with all the cutting, but with that said, their US and UK IBD operations are solid.
  • Credit Suisse had recently slaughtered their London office, and is essentially sharpening its focus on wealth management (in particular in Asia). Its US IBD is still v.strong though.
  • UBS finished their slaughtering early on (2010 - 2012) and is predominantly a wealth management firm (i mean this in a good way). Slowly building up its IBD practice now, but still has a long way to go to get back to the big league.

Given the current status of these banks, what are your guys thoughts on the possibility of a merger between mega banks, perhaps to form a EU Investment banking champion? And if so, which banks would you say would be most likely to merge if this were to happen?

  • CS acquiring DB?
  • BARC acquiring DB?
  • WF acquiring BARC?
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