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What are we selling? Candy? Kids?
It's not really a question, it's more of an exercise just to see how you think.
Assume we're talking about halloween costumes only.
Start with the US population. ~300MM
How many people do you think dress up? You could separate the question out into age groups and make assumptions about the # of people in each age interval. i.e. Ages 1-20 (Probably 90% dress up, assume 100MM people) Ages 20-30 (Maybe 60% dress up, assume 50MM people),...etc...(Age 70+, maybe 2% dress up, 50MM people)
Does everyone buy a new costume each year?
Children's costumes cost less than adults. Factor that into the equation.
blah blah blah. you could keep going but basically the interviewers want to see your thought path. They're not looking for a right answer.
If it's candy you could go about it something like:
Determine the number of US producers, and foreign importers, that make candy sold during Halloween.
Figure out when the seasonal uptick in production occurs (to take out the baseline) and find the surplus of candy produced (imported) ostensibly just for Halloween.
Gather data on distribution to get a handle on how much of the produced candy actually made it to the retail shelves.
Research how much left over candy the average US retailer has on the shelf at the end of the Haloween season. This is your Left Over factor (LF).
Take 1-LF * distributed candy = candy sold.
Then you could take the weighted average cost for each major type of candy and multiple it by this sold figure to get $ sales.
Or you could just call Wal-Mart, Amazon, and Target.
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