Rate my chances for FT. Should I even bother recruiting FT next year?

I need some serious insights. For context, I’m an international, non-diversity candidate who struck out in SA 2026 recruiting. Instead of wasting time, I took a gap semester and grinded in Asia:

  • 3 months at a boutique M&A shop (no BS Search Fund or 9-5 shop in Denver but actual deal sizes of 500M~3B USD)
  • 7 months at a tier 2~2.5 non US IB (think BNP, BMO, Nomura, Mizuho, Santander–not Barclays/DB/UBS)

I worked 85–110 hours weekly, basically a full analyst year crammed into 10 months. Live deal reps, models, CIMs, pitches–all of it. Not to be cocky, but I can even attest I can handle EXCEL better and make "prettier slides" than the US analysts with way more technical prep (I had access to the US decks). The cutthroat hours and expectations really made me improve a lot. Luckily, got a return offer from the bank in Asia, and even the MD said he’d personally pass my name to US MDs since he liked my performance.

Here’s my issue:

  • I see FT recruiting posts, but I assume almost all of them are people with US SA return offers from serious BBs and EBs and a few prestigious MMs
  • I’m worried that without one, I’ll just be auto-dinged and waste of time
  • Pay in Asia is ~$130K, which is ~$220K in U.S. purchasing power, but hours are brutal
  • I assume that the "exploding offer" narrative doesn't work with a firm in APAC

In short, I'm curious if I even have a shot at FT 2026 in the US? Or should I just lock in the Asia return and stop burning energy? My mentors all said I was a top candidate but guess being a straight Asian dude with visa issues didn't help. Sorry for the unusual background, but any opinion is welcome. Kind of having a mental breakdown seeing all these "happy to accept an offer from Goldman Stanley" posts in Linkedin.

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