Russia and emerging markets

Gentlemen who invest in the Russian market from Europe or America, please tell us what mood you have regarding Russia after the US-Russia talks. we are all afraid that the Americans will impose sanctions or begin to threaten and the Russian market will fall by half. What is your view on this situation?

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Russia isn't an emerging market, it's a demerging market. There was a meme 10 or 20 years ago about some big non-Western countries - i.e., the BRICS - becoming superpowers. Truth is, only China became truly powerful while Brazil and India have emerged as localized economic powers - Brazil for ag commodities and India for outsourced manufacturing + some service functions. Russia has military and strategic power, but is insignificant in terms of GDP and South Africa is a fucking joke at this point.

Since your question is about the mood of investors, we can say that the emergence of Putin as an authoritarian leader over the past 15 years has definitely buried any hope of Russia becoming an attractive target - corruption is too widespread and although Moscow's business center looks cleaner and neater than London's, the rest of Russia is simply not attractive when you know that any local government official can fuck you up if an oligarch bribes him to do so. Russian and Ukrainian businessmen themselves tend to have predatory practices and often try to expropriate their Western partners since they know that Western laws don't apply to them.

If you want to see potential, look at Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, and Central Europe in general. Eastern Europe (and the Balkans too) will remain corrupt shitholes for the foreseeable future.

 

Being authoritarian and corrupt never bothered investors. What Russia seems to be missing is lack of growth policy implemented throughout the country. Some of that seems to be true concern for emergence of any centers of power outside of the group in power right now in Moscow. 

The current DC policy is also not really reasonable. It's poisoned by antiquated thinking about the relationship with Russia.  

 

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