Should I do on-cycle PE recruiting?

Hi all! Apologies if this has been asked a ton on this site already. Would appreciate any and all advice.

I recently started as a first-year analyst in a decent coverage group at a middle-tier bulge-bracket bank. I'm interested in PE. Like many others, I'd love to be at a MF, but I understand that the odds may be against me.

I have a high GPA from a top school (HYPS), but I didn't intern at a bank and could barely walk you through the basics of an LBO right now.

Here's my question: Do you guys think that I should try do to on-cycle recruiting?

I guess the main subquestions here are:

1) If I wait until a later round, will the odds be even worse? Will most of the best PE associate jobs be gone?

2) Do you think it's possible for someone to get up to speed from where I am now in time for the first round of recruiting?

3) If I go for first-round and don't get anything, am I sort of screwed at that point? Am I spoiled goods?

4) Is there a smart way to "sort of" do on-cycle? Should I tell one or two headhunter firms I'm recruiting so I don't ruin my reputation with the rest of them if things don't work out?

Thanks so much, everyone! As you can see my head is spinning a bit, so I'm grateful for your help.