What are the signs that indicate you will most likely be let go?
I am a first year M&A analyst at a bottom BB bank (I know my title says I am a third year analyst in coverage, but it is not true)
I’ve been severely understaffed for nearly 1 month (like literally doing nothing), my team is doing really bad as our pipeline for the year is almost empty and our outlook for 2023 is just depressing. Let me clarify that my global group is not doing that bad, but the team in my region is just contributing nothing.
Although the head of our group recently said that he doesn’t expect to make cuts, my concerns of 1 or 2 layoffs in my office are rising as we are not doing anything.
I am increasingly fearing I might be the one let go but I am not sure if I am being rational or paranoid
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Been very understaffed for the past 4 months (last 4 weeks literally doing nothing just updating some decks and doing some research), I am leaving office everyday at 5pm but I could easily leave before noon. On Fridays the only thing I do is log in and move my mouse so my light on MS teams is in green and people know I am there.
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I’ve talked to my staffer and he tells me that is ok that work is just slow but that assignments will come
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The other analysts in my team are not very staffed either but at least they are busy doing some work until 8 or 9 pm
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I haven’t been staffed on any live project since I joined in September
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My mid year review was just ok - They told me that I am meeting expectations and they pointed out some areas for improvement but overall it was good feedback
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Recently, I feel like senior bankers barely talk to me, despite constantly having chats with the rest of analysts (this is really upsetting me and triggering my paranoia)
Do you think my concerns are justified or am I overreacting?
Didn’t BofA also say they aren’t doing cuts and then now they are? Your group head is incentivized to lie to you so you don’t panic and jump ship before they let you go (if they do). Your deal pipeline is dry so that could explain why you’re not staffed on anything but combined with a bad 2023 outlook I get why you’re nervous. Update your resume and just sample the market and see what is out there for you/demand for your profile. Worse case, you get laid off but are already in recruiting mode. Best case, you find a better offer with a better group or your teams deal flow improves and you get staffed more. On the point of seniors not speaking to you, I wouldn’t think too hard about it. Try to schedule coffee chats and build camaraderie, they may just think you are introverted or something.
"Your job is safe, and we are not cutting anyone."
-Every company before doing cuts
Always trust your intuition. At least have a plan, start networking, and be proactive. Have savings to fall back on so you can survive without a job. No one will tell you you're fucked until you're already fucked. Everything you mention makes it sound like you're not valued in your office, and no staffer will tell you that your days are numbered. What are they going to say, "Yeah, you should probably start looking for another job." There's a protocol companies have to follow to let employees go for legal reasons. I've never met anyone who had these feelings stay at their company much longer. Your intuition is usually on point.
Our CEO said just that word for word weeks before a ton of us got laid off. “No layoffs” yeah right. The opposite is usually the truth when you feel like you need to say that.
I think OP should take the first steps now while he still has a job. I’ve been recruiting for the last three months and the hiring market has been fairly muted. If I had a resume and deal sheet ready it would have been a little easier to jump into lateral conversations. Anyone who gets cut over the next few months will be recruiting in a very tough market. Better to keep your powder dry.
Funny thing today. I was at a Tesla store and spoke to a BofA RM and he said there’s a hiring freeze. No word on layoffs.
However, if you are getting less deals/responsibilities (having worked with HR at previous company), figure an exit strategy to stay two steps ahead. Prior to 08, friend was part of BofA in their class and was let go at the start of the layoffs despite it.
Continue hunting for groups to join.
Lot of good comments here. My two cents.
Again, just my opinion and good luck
I like the point about niche skills etc. definitely underrated
I would start updating my CV and start reaching out to contacts / headhunters if I were you. Not your fault if there's no deal flow but it's very unusual to not be staffed on a single live project for half a year. As a first year you might still be somewhat shielded from layoffs but from what's been going on so far once you reach second-year you're fair game.
It’s difficult to say. People will tell you to trust your gut, but in these stressful situations your head might be playing you.
I was in a similar position not long ago and I got really paranoid - I was 100% convinced I was gonna get canned, to the point I reached out to 24 recruiters in one week
Later I joked about it with a senior VP in my team and he told me that it was more likely that I won the lottery than I got laid off in that team.
There is not too much that you can do - raise your concerns again to your staffer, you can argument you are worried about not learning what you should be learning and if there are no staffings for you, then try to volunteer to work on something (a white paper, a newsletter covering a sector…)
On the back of it, work on updating your resume in case you may need it. I know it is easier said than done but don’t worry about layoffs too much, at the end of the day this is way out of your control.
Performance improvement plan
The likely scenario is that you are reading into tea leaves that are not there. It’s your first job that you worked hard to get, so you’re just on edge since it’s a slow market.
Maybe reach out to some recruiters and send them your resume, so you are on their radar and they can send you interesting roles at better banks.
But based on the evidence you have presented, I don’t think you’re on the chopping block as a first year. None of us have done much since the recession started who work in m&a or lev fin or sponsors.
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