Which banks are poised for growth in the next 5-10 years?
Curious to hear thoughts on which IB firms are truly investing in the business to grow and stay competitive.
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Tobin & Co
Ruthless... Can't say I mind in this case.
Realistically, I think that some of the banks a little bit behind EB status are bound to make that leap sooner or later e.g. Zaoui & Co or LionTree.
Within the EBs, I think that PJT can continue it's record and really become something amazing.
RBC solidifying itself at a BB level
Agree with this sentiment, definetly an up and coming BB
EDIT: Lmao which salty wf/ubs analysts msing this
Lol I think its more the DB/UBS analysts that have been throwing MS at every single RBC BB post. Pretty sad
MS more likely to have come from current RBC associates who were paid 50K bonus this year
Have heard Laz is making strong moves. Some of the “ML in advisory” language kinda seems like bs, but trimming fat in regional offices and apparently investing in new business areas. Raised comp to keep getting top talent, etc. Friend thinks will be best overall EB in a couple years
What are the forums thoughts on PWP, Moelis, Greenhill and Evercore?
I think Greenhill is in a good position - it seems like 2017 was only an anomaly. The company's turnaround plan looks promising as 2018 and 2019 results suggest - stock was up more than 30% on the 2019 results. The company is also aggressively working on new MD recruitments - let's see what 2020 brings.
Evercore, Centerview, PJT, Barclays, JPM, Citi, RBC, tiny boutiques/restructuring shops all seem to be making strides recently.
BB: JPM, Barclays Boutiques: PJT, Lazard, Qatalyst, Evercore
Expect GS and MS will remain competitive
Don’t forget Guggenheim, been steadily trending upwards for the past several years now
Whats the positive news coming out of Barclays? I know they beat earnings, but otherwise I'm uninformed.
Not OP but IMO its just clearly the european bank most likely to survive, especially with essentially being an NYC HQ'd IB. DB and UBS are non-players, and CS has lost its grip over the last decade and seems to, from a company standpoint, value PWM/AM over IBD. That being said, I don't see Barclays reaching MS/GS/JPM level anytime soon; to even be in that discussion it needs to make some key IB hires in a few groups.
If we speak about current momentum BofA is the big winner. If we look at the long term I would say Barclays and DB will gain the place they used to have in IB.
In any case there shouldnt be large changes in the next 5 years, expect little changes across big players. Only some boutiques will get into the EB state and others will fall off, its a matter of rainmakers changing firms for better pay conditions
Barclays has already proven itself - the Lehman acquisition was an amazing move. Your view of DB is interesting but I certainly agree that it has a brighter future, at least on the M&A side, compared to UBS.
I see the rising firms at JPM, BofA, and Barclays and the falling firms as UBS and perhaps Credit Suisse. I look forward to seeing how RBC(generally positive outlook), DB(generally negative outlook), and WFS(??? outlook) fare over these few years.
How would you compare DB to RBC?
Well lets go step by step.
Bofa or baml is overhiring now due to high expectations, which means eithe layouts in the short term or getting at the level of JP/MS, one of thowe will happen for sure. This year should or at least is expected by the consensus to be good, who knows next...
JPM keeps resizing, which should be reflected on revenue in short term, but still should keep growing if they focus on key regions.
Barclays acquired Lehmsn divisions but its not what it used to be, its losing market share in some key sectors across M&A due to MDs leaving.
Credit Suisse should scale up its sponsors and TMT franchise and reorganize low profitsble cov sectors if he wants to keep strong in Europe
UBS seems to take a step back and focus on PB or UWM / PWM where they are strong leaders and revenues keep growing, not sure about their M&A franchise
Deutsche Bank ;)
good thing about hitting rock bottom is there's nowhere to go but up
That's what Dick Fuld told me in 2008 LMAO
Do you think DB will be better than RBC long term?
HAHA no, RBC got some tricks up their sleeve. RBC future BB
BofA/BAML has probably the best growth trajectory out of the US BBs. Citi seems to try to do the same as them but so far BofA seems to come up on top.
JPM actually won't grow as much imo, simply because there is very little room to grow in IBD, sure maybe some more mm fees in M&A/ECM but talking to some seniors there, they are pretty saturated.
GS/MS probably mainly unchanged although outside M&A/ECM, GS seems to have a growing franchise whereas MS is pretty much unchanged (not sure the Mitsubishi thing will make a difference beyond a few mega deals)
I'd say GS is growing even in M&A, take a look at their cross markets initiative.
Not sure it qualifies. GS is a giant hedge fund that occasionally pretends it has some banking business.
This is a solid point - GS is dipping heavily into midmarket business which was traditionally covered by Blair, Baird etc. A lot of business development in that area may favor GS given the brand if the client has no previous banking relationships.
Berenberg is on a pretty high streak atm, wouldn´t be surprised if they establish themselves as the new boutique on the block.
May I ask why?
Wait and watch Mediobanca grow
Not https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/hsbc-reports-fourth-quarter-full-year-2…</a">HSBC.
Just to speculate a bit here. Corporate leverage is pretty high these days. Energy (specifically upstream oil/gas) is an easy target, but there are pockets of other sectors drowning in debt with no real liquidity levers to pull that the market will support. With that said, I'd say any shop that does a lot of restructuring / bankruptcy emergence will probably do pretty well in the near-term.
In terms of shops: HL, Lazard, PJT, Moelis, and probably Evercore. Maybe Rothschild. I would assume bulge-brackets with strong RX desks will also reap some pretty interesting fees.
what about BMO IBD?
LOL, no... see here
https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/state-of-bmo-in-2020
https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/10-years-in-banking-tech-and-con…
I like most picks mentioned. I’m actually going to take this post as a moment to criticize a bank which deserves hard criticism but never receives it and that is Goldman. Their market cap and growth numbers over recent years show underachievement. DJ D-Sol better switch up his goals.
Piper Sandler is already 45b in deals this year. will be a huge banner year for the firm.
What is the sentiment in the Middle Market? It seems shops like Baird and Blair are separating from firms such as Lincoln, Pipar, etc.
Piper's doing pretty well AFAIK
I'm not sure why people struggle to grasp this concept, but it has been talked about ad nauseam.
It depends on the group
Overall, I'd still rank the top two as HL and Blair with Piper, Baird, HW, LMM in close pursuit and top ranked in specific verticals. Lincoln isn't on the same level overall, but has some more competitive groups (HC services).
How so on Baird?
Within the Canadian market - Nationak Bank and Canaccord have both been making strong pushes. NBF in particular has had a bumper L12M.
Honestly, how the hell would any of you monkeys know anything about this point to begin with.
im going with Houlihan, Macquarie, and RBC as my pics. Macquarie has been poaching CS like crazy and is getting solid talent. HL seems really strong.
Would be careful with blanket statements like this. HL outside of rx is not a reputable shop and runs mostly midmarket / LMM deals depending on the group. Macquarie within investor circles is still only recognized for its MIRA practice.
How so on Baird?
Goldman just like the stock market boys, only goes up
What’s the outlook on Ducera?
Piper’s interesting as they’ve expanded their deal volume through organic growth, ie, Simmons Energy, Sandler and now TRS Advisors. So on the whole they’re expanding reach. On the other hand it doesn’t seem like the groups in of themselves are gaining more clout within their industries. The Sandler acq seems to be the only area where they’re actually trying to combine capabilities for better coverage in FIG.
Any thoughts on Rothschild, Greenhill, Jefferies?
Restructuring at Greenhill poised for growth. RX class size has more than doubled and they scored some impressive mandates earlier this year
Rothschild has been on a pretty big push for its US operations (m&a) the past few years. A lot of hiring at the senior level to build out new groups like fig and infra, but I'd imagine it will still be another few years for that to really manifest. They have done pretty well this year when it comes to m&a league tables (pretty easy to google search for these) but I have no idea of any specific deals. Rx is still solid and has had a few strong mandates recently like Chesapeake, subro on PG&E, but it is not the same level it used to be before Augustine left for Greenhill and Snyder left to start TRS.
I know RX is considered a solid group, but are any of the m&a industry groups particularly strong/weak or are they pretty even(other than FIG and infra being newer)?
thoughts on CS?
Strong legacy of senior bankers and one of the best leveraged finance franchises on the street. Current CEO has also stated he intends to invest heavily in their M&A advisory business. Don’t see them losing their position anytime soon.
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jefferies has had a record year across the board and picked up significant market share in ECM and US M&A. Still at or near the top of leveraged loan league tables as well.
BofA is ahead of MS YTD for global IB fees. certainly noteworthy. another bank that kills it in levfin and they have capitalized on the HY bond market this year
expect the EBs with large rx practices to continue to grow, especially guggenheim landing some big deals this year and with so much work to go around could expect to see that continue
Look at Berenberg's performance in ECM! Still small but growing in M&A.
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