36 Comments
 
ProspectiveProspective123

Do y'all think this just a GS thing? Other banks have done layoffs on much smaller scales already, but wonder what's ahead

I hate to say it, but unless things turn around dramatically in 1Q/2Q, there will be a lot more pain.  I suspect most banks are pruning / right sizing to some extent now and are preparing deeper cuts in 1H if business conditions dont improve dramatically.  My bank is.  Goldman just out front.

 
DoddFrank
ProspectiveProspective123

Do y'all think this just a GS thing? Other banks have done layoffs on much smaller scales already, but wonder what's ahead

I hate to say it, but unless things turn around dramatically in 1Q/2Q, there will be a lot more pain.  I suspect most banks are pruning / right sizing to some extent now and are preparing deeper cuts in 1H if business conditions dont improve dramatically.  My bank is.  Goldman just out front.

BigLaw to follow... and the dominos start to fall - suddenly people can't afford their rent/mortgages, credit card balances spike....etc. Might not be anything near 2008, but this is total mean reversion at its finest.  Deflation is on the horizon - see Tesla price cuts the other day.

 

Obviously deal flow down everywhere but GS is clearly taking this to a higher extreme than most (anyone?) else at this point.

Part of it is just being publicly traded - a private shop can weather some down quarters without anyone really caring, whereas a public company has quarterly earnings reports that they need to worry about. IMO, this is one of the big perks of being at an independent / non-public bank. My guess is other BBs will certainly follow here

GS also tried to grow super aggressively over the past few years (both IB and non IB) and are now feeling the pain as the economy tanks

 

The shortfalls of shareholder capitalism. In fact, there are no benefits to it.

Edit: not the grade 4 level reading comprehension gang throwing MS thinking the comment is anti-capitalist 

 
Funniest

Hey intern 👋 just wanted to let you know that there is no such thing as non-shareholder capitalism, and that buzzwords like “ESG” and “CSR” are branding strategy at best, or (at worst) vehicles to appease the political ideology of institutional shareholders/lenders.

But you’re going to quickly rise up the ranks in your MM bank and change the world – go get ‘em this summer buddy!

 
Controversial

What an unnecessarily condescending post for no reason. 

Not to mention weird snobbery against MM banks. Associate 2, you're like what, 26 or 27 now? And you behave like some Prospect teenage about arbitrary labels like BB and MM. I'm at a BB for what it's worth, nor is it my first summer at one; you need to grow the fuck up and act your age you mega disappointment. 

 

Wtf even is shareholder capitalism?! That's like saying a round circle... no shit a circle is round. U sound like those NPC kids in my humanities core classes that talks non-stop without actually saying much meaningful content. 

 

A bank is not only its IBD part, though this forum focuses a lot on IB. Look at JPM, which is publicly traded, yet a whole different narrative than GS in terms of earnings reports. When shareholders expect return, it's on the entire bank (including asset management, commercial, wealth, securities, etc) and JPM has the largest amount of deposits and sticky commercial lending, which protects/hedges against economic downturns in advisory businesses. ie; take commercial lending / credit cards as an example. Just look at the amount of Chase cards in everybody's wallet. This lending space is actually the top line driver for JPM. In times of rising interest rates, JPM's revenue grows bc it charges higher interests on its top line. This cushions against IBD losses. During 2020-2021 GS had been a powerhouse in IBD, which drove its top line and return to equity. They made adjustments such as increased employment during the good years. But now in the bad years, when IBD is down bc of macro conditions/recession/no deals, this makes it really hard for GS to find ways to save return to equity holders besides cutting costs in the form of layoffs.

MS is similar to GS in that it doesn’t have a heavily BS driven business model like JPM/BofA, and are likely to fall to layoffs as well. Though they did not make that billion dollar loss of a misguided attempt of commercial expansion as GS did, which really did GS dirty last Q

 
soccerislife98

A bank is not only its IBD part, though this forum focuses a lot on IB. Look at JPM, which is publicly traded, yet a whole different narrative than GS in terms of earnings reports. When shareholders expect return, it's on the entire bank (including asset management, commercial, wealth, securities, etc) and JPM has the largest amount of deposits and sticky commercial lending, which protects/hedges against economic downturns in advisory businesses. ie; take commercial lending / credit cards as an example. Just look at the amount of Chase cards in everybody's wallet. This lending space is actually the top line driver for JPM. In times of rising interest rates, JPM's revenue grows bc it charges higher interests on its top line. This cushions against IBD losses. During 2020-2021 GS had been a powerhouse in IBD, which drove its top line and return to equity. They made adjustments such as increased employment during the good years. But now in the bad years, when IBD is down bc of macro conditions/recession/no deals, this makes it really hard for GS to find ways to save return to equity holders besides cutting costs in the form of layoffs.

MS is similar to GS in that it doesn't have a heavily BS driven business model like JPM/BofA, and are likely to fall to layoffs as well. Though they did not make that billion dollar loss of a misguided attempt of commercial expansion as GS did, which really did GS dirty last Q

Canadian bank stocks are also rock solid and even the ones with decently sizeable capital markets operations like RBC and TD generally have very few layoffs.

 

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