Do you guys think that 25 years from now, there'll still be the Byron Trotts, Frank Quattrones, etc in IB coming out? Do you think these people will still come out of bulge brackets, or will the shift be towards the more boutique and niche banks?
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nothing will ever be like the past, thats kind of how the future works
Short answer is no, the reason is because of saturation. Tech (albeit current market corrections) is like what finance was in the 80s and 90s, which is why many new grads are interested in going into tech versus high finance.
Curious to see what next "gold-rush" will be after tech
A subsector within tech, which is AI.
In my opinion, yes but less so. Really subjective view.
There'll still be very talented bankers, but not with the same degree of unique fame / success. Another user has said it, but the IB market is very saturated and there's less real innovation to do (new products like inventing new forms of capital, for instance, or interesting deal ideas. In addition, larger corporates are much more overbanked than in the past). There'll be some though, and with the enormous scale of larger banks now, really talented bankers might see (1) less upside in their firm's stock price (or frankly ability to affect it), and (2) less ability to reach a really meaningful role.
So to your question, I think we'll see more boutiques (and older generations of boutiques where the founders have moved on, fading away) founded by BB successful MDs who are sick of the corporate BS (politics, and potentially restrictive policies) and see more upside doing their own thing.
The rise of alternative careers though is an interesting trend. If top candidates go increasingly to tech / AI / etc., maybe there's an opportunity for the few top candidates who do go to IB to really shine (and the market gets less saturated, etc., the trend reverses).
Honestly, I see the quants starting to take over as the next "Banking". Companies are moving closer and closer to the data, which likely means we'll start to see QR and QD going to big companies to run their departments. It's just generally true that we live in a more tech/math/data driven world where people skills are becoming mixed in with hard technical skills. When quant firms like HRT and JS are offering 500K to new grads, why would the 1% be driven to a career that pays less and has more working hours?
That said, finance, as a whole, isn't going anywhere. It's just shifting so that things will be different, much like how actively managed funds are on the way out for passive funds. Things change, and we have to be ready to adapt, or die.
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