Why is everyone ignoring that the recession has already started?
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I don’t think it’s been ignored. The Dow has been negative for the past six months. Sure that doesn’t necessarily equate to a recession, but stock market drops usually precede and are a signal of recessions. Additionally, t yield curve inverted in April. And a recession has historically typically followed 5-24 months afterwards. There have been lots of signs unfortunately. Praying and hoping it doesn’t come and if it does, that it is mild. But signs indicate that it is coming — it is just a question of time. If it does come, I hope it will at least come beyond 4 months from now. Feels like Covid recession was just yesterday, and having just two years in between recessions has been very hard for me personally and probably for many others as well.
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A recession hasn’t technically started yet. GDP is currently decelerating in growth but that does not mean that the economy is contracting. We are approaching a higher likelihood of entering a recession but we are not in one currently. A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth if I recall correctly and gdp growth hasn’t turned negative yet.
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Thanks for blessing us with this information, Intern in IB.
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If you know, you know. If by 'ignoring' you mean that the recession has not yet been made public in CNN or talked about by our boy Joey B that's because the public is usually informed 2-6 months after the fact (just like COVID started in Nov2019 but the public got informed in March2020) because the last thing we want is for retail traders to also start panicking and pulling out of the market at the same time that firms in Wall Street are rebalancing their portfolios for the next cycle. So if you know, you know. But keep it to yourself unless you want to end up like the DB informant.
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