2020 election: Dem chances vs. Trump

The 2020 campaign season is about to heat up, with the Iowa caucus less than a month away. As of now, Biden and Bernie are the clear frontrunners for the Dem nomination. So what are their chances of beating Trump in the general election? This post will be a political overview, not a policy analysis nor an endorsement of one candidate over another.

So let's start with Trump's strengths and weaknesses. On the latter, Trump is a uniquely polarizing political figure. Despite a fairly strong economy, Trump's personal approvals have hovered in the ~45% range, almost never eclipsing 50%. This is a classic case of high floor, low ceiling. Trump has also alienated a large swath of college-educated white women, a voting bloc that used to vote reliably GOP and turn out to vote at higher rates than other demographics. On the other hand, Trump's base is still fairly large, and his approvals are actually in line with W Bush and Obama's at this point in their presidencies. And as NY Times Upshot columnist Nate Cohn has argued, the data shows that Trump does possess an advantage (albeit a modest one) in the Electoral College.

Now, we turn to the formidable advantage of incumbency. I certainly don't think Trump wins in a landslide, nor do I think that he is a huge favorite. But since 1900, only 4 elected incumbent Presidents have lost re-election: Taft 1912, Hoover 1932, Carter 1980, HW Bush 1992. In each of these cases, the following conditions applied: 1) sharp economic downturn, 2) divided party, 3) talented political challenger. Taft 1912 was an extreme case of #2 as Teddy Roosevelt ran 3rd party and got around 28% of the national popular vote, costing Taft the election.

So how do these variables apply to 2020? The economy is still pretty good, and most likely we are not going into a recession in 2020. The GOP is firmly united behind Trump. Taft, Hoover, Carter, HW Bush, had internal party approvals below 75%. And finally, I don't see a Democrat who is remotely comparable to the political talent of a FDR, Reagan, or Clinton.

This final point has not been discussed much in the analysis of 2020. Americans don't like throwing out incumbent Presidents. By and large, they give them the benefit of the doubt and want to give them four more years to fulfill their agenda. A successful challenger must simultaneously convince the people to change Presidents mid-stream, and reassure them that they are making the right choice without coming across as condescending. The challenger must tell a better American Story, a narrative that tells us where we are, how we got here, and where we must go to have a better future. Bill Clinton did this masterfully in 1992 when he argued that HW Bush was not the right man to lead us in a post-Cold War world order, one in which countries will become more interconnected through globalization and technology. Clinton offered a critique of Reagan conservatism but also reprimanded the hard left of his party, thereby combining the best elements of Reaganism with the best of FDR/Truman/JFK liberalism. When I look at the Democratic candidates, I don't see anyone who has yet risen up for this challenge.

From the standpoint of the Electoral College, I think the Democrat must achieve at least 2 of the following to defeat Trump: 1) meaningfully reduce Trump's white working class (WWC) margins in the swing states, 2) drive up black and Latino turnout to near Obama levels, 3) turn out non-voters.

I don't think any Democrat can do #2 as Obama was a unique political figure. With #1, Bernie's economic populism can appeal to WWC, but it's not clear that his socialism, atheism, and cultural liberalism (especially on immigration) can make a meaningful dent with the WWC in the Rust Belt. Also, Bernie can be problematic with college-educated white suburban voters, many of whom voted Romney-Hillary or Romney-3rd party. This could cause problems for not just Bernie but down ballot Democrats in competitive districts and states. A Bernie nomination can jeopardize Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, while Biden wins those states fairly easily. However Bernie is stronger than Biden on #3. We know from the data that 12% of Bernie 2016 primary voters went for Trump in the general election, and a whopping 25% did not vote for Hillary. Bernie will galvanize far left young people and left leaning independents who are disillusioned with politics. Will that be enough to win the election? That remains yet to be seen.

Either way, 2020 looks to be an intense roller coaster, probbly the craziest election in modern history. Fun times!