Anybody read Oil 101/Familiar with it and the industry?

Just started, finished the first chapter. A lot has definitely changed since it was published in '09 with unconventional resources, I'm just wondering how much of that is reflected in the book? When Downey talks about the future of oil, he says "Oil Shale is a fundamental non-starter...and no amount of technology can make it practical" (27). So, from my limited knowledge, either (a) oil shale is not the same shale we've been fracking the hell out of these last few years, or (b) he was COMPLETELY blindsided by the rise of fracking. Anybody care to elaborate? Is his book due for an update?

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Yea you have got to been careful with the terminology. There are a few fundamental differences in the play types that are often times confused due to incorrect nomenclature.

Oil Shale or "Oil-bearing Shale" (Often times called shale oil which is a misnomer) = Completely uneconomic play concept at current oil prices. The play is basically targeting immature organic rich shale which has not yet been exposed to the burial history needed to "cook" organic source rock into hydrocarbons. The production concept involves heating the rock up to the temperature required to "cook" oil out of it. The largest deposits in the world are in the Green River Formation (Colorado, Utah, Wyoming). A lot of experimental research by Exxon and Shell went into it in the 1990's and early 2000's, but proven uneconomic unless oil jumps to over ~$100 per barrel.

Shale Oil = Completely economically viable. These plays are taking off like crazy right now in areas like the Bakken Shale and the Eagleford Shale. Play concept basically involves drilling horizontal wells into the formation then hydraulically fracturing the rock in order to induce the required stimulated reservoir volume and permeability to flow oil that has already been "cooked" in the mature source rock. If you have ever been up to the Bakken in North Dakota.... It is straight out of a story book, the towns are akin to old wild west gold mining boom towns that were overrun by thugs and prostitutes.

Shale Gas = Similar to shale oil but the source rock has been buried to greater temperatures and pressures which has caused the primary product type to be gas instead of oil. Biggest plays include the Haynesville Shale, Woodford Shale, etc. This was HUGE in 2008, 2009 and 2010 but has since died off as it is no longer commercially viable with gas prices under $4-5/mcf. These plays are responsible for the huge drop in US gas prices and the decline from $6-7/mcf to $3-4/mcf. The big LNG export facilities recently sanctioned in the US and due to be ready in the next 5ish years are based on the premise of floating $3-5/mcf gas out of the US to the Europe/China/Japan market where prices are $10-15/mcf.

 

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