Are we seeing the end of this year's College Football Season?

Over the last few months, it's become pretty clear to me that fall college sports would be canceled. I had a feeling back in June that this would be the case and have been following this religiously. Up until yesterday, I still had some extremely cautious optimism that the NCAA would at least try to have D1 FBS college football in some form this fall. But, as fate would have it, I was right to expect that this season is looking like it won't happen at all. The canary in the coal mine was Stanford's shuttering of 11 sports teams. Stanford has always been the gold standard for Athletics, having produced more Olympic athletes than any other program and having won the NCAA Director's Cup for the last 25 years. The events of the last few weeks, between the changes in scheduling with the Power 5 conferences going Conference-Only and the posturing that came with it (I'm looking at you ACC with your Conference + 1 model to force the SEC to agree to play), Notre Dame moving to the ACC for a season, the uncertainty behind feasible college football, players getting Covid-19 (Michigan State, Rutgers, LSU, Clemson, Kansas State, and so on), by fucking up and being college students or coming in contact with someone inadvertently who had it, players trying to unionize and make demands of their conferences, and other issues, it would eventually lead us to what happened over the last few days.

Although UConn was the first team to declare that they would not play the season, the last few days have really seen the world of college sports change. On Saturday, the MAC decided that they would not hold a season. Led by Northern Illinois, the conference said that it wasn't worth the risk. On Monday, the Mountain West conference said that they wouldn't hold a season in the fall. Yesterday, the Big 10 and Pac 12 both announced that they wouldn't hold fall seasons. The Pac 12 took it a step further and said they would not hold any college sports until after the end of the calendar year which affects their Basketball programs as well. UMass, an Independent, and Old Dominion, a member of Conference USA, also announced it wouldn't play. Both the Big 10 and Pac 12 announcements highlighted the uncertainty of the medical risks that Covid-19 could have on athletes and the significant number of unknowns that go hand in hand with it. While it may be a bit of a longshot, they both want to play football in the spring if it's possible.

Currently, this means that 53 (25 of the 59 Group of 5 Schools, 26 of the 64 of the Power 5 Schools, and 2 of the 7 Independents) of 130 FBS teams are not having a fall season. That's ~41% of the FBS. In the coming days, I expect 3 more independent teams, BYU, New Mexico State, and Army, to cancel their seasons too solely based on Travel Restrictions. So that brings it up to 56 of 130 teams canceling their season. There are ways to tip the scales to break that 50% mark such as Conference USA's 13 other teams agreeing to cancel the season, a combination of the Sun Belt, The AAC, and the remaining Independents canceling their season, or the Big 12 canceling their season. I do think we hit that tipping point sooner rather than later. Using Temple as an example - in order for them to compete this season, they play up to 8 teams located in states that are currently high risk. PA currently has a 14-day quarantine in place for travel to and from the states those teams are located in. Navy, which also plays in the AAC, is required to follow Maryland's rules which include a 14-day quarantine after traveling to play games outside the state. In the case of Cincinnati, also in the AAC, any team traveling to Ohio has a player who tests positive for Covid-19 or is exhibiting symptoms is prohibited from entering the state. That means that 10 potential matchups can be canceled. The same issues are there for Power 5 teams too. In the ACC, 'Cute, Pitt, and BC are in states with mandatory quarantine periods for travel. That's 3 teams out of 15 (14 ACC Teams + Notre Dame) or 20% of the conference right there. So hitting that 50% threshold based on viability can definitely be hit.

The real issue though comes down to the Big 12. They have no allies, so to speak. It's pretty clear that the Big 10 and Pac 12 have paired up and the ACC and SEC have paired up. Does the Big 12 follow the folks to the north and west or do they follow the folks to the east? If the Big 12 cancels their season, then there is little hope for anyone else to play. Their cancelation would mean that more than half of the Power 5 is not playing this season and everyone else will fall in line.

With the announcement of the Big 10 and Pac 12 canceling their fall seasons, a lot of talking heads have come out with ridiculous ideas. Playing College Football in a bubble won't work at this stage in the game. It also violates dozens of NCAA rules. Players aren't unionized, meaning they aren't compensated beyond scholarships. So we end up with NCAA no longer treating college sports as Amateurism, which, again, violates a ton of rules. Moving conferences unless your an independent is also out of the question. Scott Frost, the head coach of Nebraska, openly said he would want to play elsewhere this season. The economics behind that is untenable. Last year, the team was paid $55MM for media rights. Moving to the ACC, Big 12, or SEC would mean a $25MM+ hit on revenue, loss of control on their media rights because they are owned by the Big 10, needing the approval of the incoming conference, and lawsuits against the school. It's also been suggested that players try to transfer to conferences that are having a season and push for an immediate waiver of eligibility. Every single school that has canceled its fall sports programs will be fighting the NCAA tooth and nail over that one, so I don't see it happening.

From an economic standpoint, both Penn State and Wisconsin have said that this will be a very high eight-figure or low nine-figure hit. I'm sure that Ohio State will see similar losses as well. I can't speak to the Pac 12, but I assume that they will also incur a low-to-mid eight-figure hit depending on the school. Schools in the Group of 5 already got hit once economically when the Power 5 went to a Conference-Only schedule. Many of these teams play guarantee games against Power 5 schools in order to help fund their athletic department. Being paid between $500K and $1.5MM to play against a team from a major conference is a lot of money. This year alone, Kent State's 3 guarantee games were set to pay out about $5MM which would have funded the football program. I think the estimate is this year, the by going conference only, the MAC, as a conference, is expected to lose about $24MM in revenue. For Power 5 schools, we're talking an even greater hit. Between the value of media rights, lost gameday sales on branded apparel, and tickets and concession purchases in stadiums where capacity has been limited or restricted entirely, the losses will become staggering. I know it goes without saying, but the second-order effect of no fall season on college towns is going to have even larger economic consequences.

At this point, I expect the fall to be devoid of football. That means no War Eagle, no Red Rival Rivalry, no Clean, Old Fashioned Hate, no Bedlam, no Iron Bowl, no Egg Bowl, no Rocky Mountain Showdown, no The Game, and no White Out. It feels like there will be a giant void to be filled on Saturdays. While I'm torn because I want there to be college football, I also understand that there are risks with playing. I also think that this has a ton of long term ramifications.

That said, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on if you think the season gets canceled as a whole, the Power 5 will break away, whether this is the impetus to unionize college football, and anything else. I definitely don't think I'm alone on this one, but I want to hear what you guys have to say.

I'm also curious about what current D1 Athletes think of the whole situation. I want to pose a second question to you guys (and please, feel free to respond anonymously on this one given the nature of the question) but what are your thoughts on competing right now? Are you in a conference affected by the fall sports moratorium? Do you think that if campuses aren't open, sports should still be allowed to happen? Do you think that schools are doing what's in the best interest for themselves or are they putting the players first? If given the option to compete, would you be willing to abide by what amounts to strict protocols in order to play even if it means having no social life this season? If waivers are granted, would you consider transferring to compete this season?