Hey guys, since my last blog post was pretty successful it gave me the idea to have a more open ended discussion.
Ask me anything you like. If it's a resonable question Ill answer it.
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Do you think Greece defaults?
lol
If Greece switches their currency to body hair, then no.
I don't think even this can save them.
In my opinion the entire Eurozone crisis is a dog and pony show. These conturies all come and smile for the camera saying that they love the Euro and will work tirelessly to save it. In reality they fucking hate it, want to stab each other in they eyeball with a dildo. The logistics of having a unified currency under a disunified system of government will never work. Too much national pride and not enough brains equals this clusterfuck that they are in. Do I think Greece will default. I give it a 60% chance of happening, do I want it to happen? Fuck yes, I am sick of reading about it on my ticker.
Kyle Bass said at a conference last week that he expects a Greek default by December 19, with private bond holders being completely wiped out...
Have you ever used real options?
If so, give us an example
I have used real options, on the last timber tract I bought I put in a 6 month option to buy at x price per acre before I thought the price of timber was going to rise. This happened however it wasn't a huge profit.
Real options are usually used for development tracts. They make much more sense for things like this, if you are doing a development you can option out segements of a larger tract so you don't have to tie up all of your capitol in the land.
At this point, if Greece defaults it will basically be a non-event. If it happened earlier or a year ago, it would have a Lehman-like impact. Greece is old news, and people are prepared and expect whatever outcome that fucking pita press of a country decides on. Focus is now elsewhere. No other country is insolvent but there are countries that are facing liquidity issues.
What are your thoughts on Japan?
I was reading some articles on Kyle Bass Bass and Bill Ackman. Bass thinking that Japan will default, Ackman thinking that Japan will let go of the PEG to the US dollar(so that it will increase in price because Ackman thinks the Yen is the most undervalued currency at the moment). If I'm not mistaken these are complete opposite opinions, correct?
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