China's economic dominance, sooner than we think?
from the Economist Spheres of influence
A NEW book, discussed in this week's Economics focus, by Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute for International Economics argues that China's economic might will overshadow America's sooner than people think.
By 2030 China's share of global economic power will match America's in the 1970s and Britain's a century before. Three forces will dictate China's rise, Mr Subramanian argues: demography, convergence and "gravity". Since China has over four times America's population, it only has to produce a quarter of America's output per head to exceed America's total output. Indeed, Mr Subramanian thinks China is already the world's biggest economy, when due account is taken of the low prices charged for many local Chinese goods and services outside its cities. China will be equally dominant in trade, accounting for twice America's share of imports and exports.
Is the economic threat of China just a trendy fear tactic to sell books / get blog reads? Or is China's economic power truly going to change the world, overtake the US, and soon? I've lived there... the government/ bureaucracy/system/economy seem to be a mess when actually talking to the people and seeing it take place first hand, and not to mention some of China's economic/financial prowess is a facade imo (Shanghai), but they still are 1.3bil+ people, with a HUGE middle class, and nonetheless an extreme force to be reckoned with. Personally - am I considering living another year in China to develop more business contacts/network? Yes. Would I have my kids learn Mandarin? Yes, but am I shaking in my boots? no.