The jobs numbers for the month of July came out yesterday and as usual, they can imply several completely different things. At first glance, it looks promising: employment rose by around 160,000+ jobs in July, with growth in manufacturing, professional services, and health and education services. However, the recent report also mentions that unemployment ticked up from 8.2% to 8.3% (but statistically, nothing changed). Household data from the nation-wide surveys also showed a decline in both employment and the overall size of the labour force. Soooo.....now what?
As I said earlier, this type of report seems to happen every month. There's some good news and some bad news. But, I believe that it's ultimately bad. Sure, we may add some jobs here and there, but I think it will ultimately be this for the next 6-9 months, regardless of the upcoming election: disappointing/anemic growth and the slow decline of the ranks of the unemployed as jobless workers give up and leave the labour force.
So, what now? What can the government/Fed/the average worker do to help create a major productivity boost which can lead to more jobs? Are we stuck in this trainwreck of a recovery for the long term?
I don't know the solution, but printing money sure doesn't have a part in it.
I was about to say the same thing. But honestly, what can be done to increase jobs? Transparency? Tax breaks? Stimulus? Because cheapening the $ and low interest rates isn't working. Is it fair to say we just need to wait and let the cyclical economy run it's course?
Philips curve?
I'm no expert but does the report take into account people who had once stopped searching for a job, but now are back in the labor market? Is that number significant or relevant?
added jobs? does something called smoothing ring a bell?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/seasonal-and-birth-death-adjustments-add-…
[quote=orangejulius]added jobs? does something called smoothing ring a bell?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/seasonal-and-birth-death-adjustments-add-…]
Don't read ZH too much, you'll go nuts!
Like most statistics issued by the government, this is completely irrelevant. They have no idea wtf is going on
Better than that 60/80k bullshit the last couple of months
You gotta be completely retarded to think those numbers are real. People that no longer qualify for unemployment is the part of the reason you dont see the unimployment rate at double that figure. Majority of the real number of people unemployed are either part time workers or are no longer seeking employment( I dont blame them), considering all that no wonder unemployment numbers have gone down from the past year.
There's lies , there's damned lies and then there's statistics.
It's better than the last few for sure even though the birth/death model added a great deal more jobs than last month. Ultimately, it won't mean much in terms of changing policy unless it's followed by more positive numbers, which is too bad considering the only policy response we've been seeing the past few years is the oh-so-wonderful and effective QEs (just resign Ben, come on man). The only real policy solution I can think of would be to extend the tax cuts for 5 years and start a massive infrastructure investment plan (I'm talking ~$2 Trill. here). Not exactly fiscally prudent, but we're the 'cleanest dirty shirt' right now to paraphrase Bill Gross and we could always use a weaker dollar. But as we all know, that will never happen in this political environment. I was arguing for this back in early 2009 but I think the window of opportunity has been shut by the Euro crisis and the Tea Partiers.
It's all relative. Numbers mean nothing without more colour. So what if employment rose by 160,000 in June! This figure alone means NOTHING! You need to ask - what did market consensus expect this number to be? What was the number in June 2011, what was the number for May 2011. If jobs increased by 160,000 in June 2012 and market consensus was that they would increase by 200,000 and in June 2011 they increased by 180,000 and in May they increased by 170,000, then that is clear cut negative news - FACT. You cannot just state figures and then make a punt about the economy. Let me give you an example. UK Q2 GDP was released tuesday 24th July. Market consensus was that it would decrease by -0.2% whereas it did in fact decrease by -0.7%. Now that is bad news. That shows UK economy is in worse state than though. The market has priced in UK of -0.2 % so the result of -0.7% will have a negative impact on stocks with exposure to UK, Great British Pound will depreciate relative to other currencies and there will be a potential increase rates on Gilts etc (there are many ways to look at this - the negative results could decrease yield on Gilts as the poor economic data may be thought to pressure UK gov to push QE3). You get the point though you need more info don't just look at the face value of numbers , look beyond them, get colour and then you can make an educated decision!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Soros, I would argue fiscal policy as a whole is the issue. Fiscal cliff, taxes, healthcare are all HUGE issues that the average business has to do deal with. People need/want certainty/predictability and they are not getting it. The Fed has never had a huge impact on the average American, rather Congress/the Pres does.
I personally think the November elections are a big event, but only to a certain extent. Doesn't matter who takes office if Congress/Senate doesn't work with them. Kind of fed up with American politics but that's just me..
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