Market has rallied, everything looks rich, but I'm sure there are some pockets of value (or at least some areas to keep tabs on if there is another pullback.) What's your best investment idea right now that anyone with a fidelity account can execute?
I'll go first: Gold. Tailwinds are low rates (makes fixed income less attractive as an alt) and money printer brrr etc, status as safe haven asset, plus huge inflows to ETFs. Headwinds are softening jewelry demand, strong USD, possibility of a V recovery. Price is currently $1700/oz. BAML put out a 18 month price target of $3k/oz (note that this is BAML, not some crazy zero hedge gold bug blog). Saxo bank is at $4k/oz (lol). Even as a gold bull I find these outlandish, but I think there's still some room to run medium term.
Gold miners and silver are obvious associated plays (I don't have quite as much conviction here). Gold miners have run up quite a bit though, and I've honestly not done as much research on individual names as I would ideally like. Silver is weird - it's literally trading at an all time discount to gold (gold to silver ratio is like 110+, which has pretty much never happened before). It has way more industrial applications so more geared to recovery and has lagged (but also maybe it's a bit of a hedge for gold re: economic recovery). It's trading like a commodity right now, and not as much like a store of value like gold, but there's also a reason it's called poor man's gold.
Obviously I am long all this shit. Do your own DD, blah blah blah
I think this quarantine will help companies realize that their technology can allow people to work from home while running business as usual. As a consequence, this may cause even more disruption in the CMBS space as companies look to cut costs by taking up less office space and investing in software + hardware to allow its employees to work from home. I would be long software companies and hardware companies.
I think this pandemic has allowed companies to see how effective working from home is, and may start the trend of companies cutting down their rent expenses in favor of more flexible work from home arrangements. Logically, if your company is in a business that really does not require everyone to be on site, why not just have your employees work from home and equip them with enough technology to be able to do their jobs in the comfort of their own room? This brings other benefits to the employees, such as helping parents spend less money and more time with their kids, allows employees to travel the world and also work, bringing flexibility to everyone's schedule.
My best investment idea would always be this: education.
Compulsory basic medical education until the end of college. Some of the stupid things I've heard during this crisis have made me want to jump off the face of the earth.
You're not blow drying your nose hairs while injecting lysol into your lungs?
Big spike of infections once states re-open leading to another shutdown and a stock market dive. I'm 50% cash right now. Hope I'm wrong.
I definitely think there will be another dip in July or early August.
Exited a bunch of my equity positions today and also sitting on 50% cash now. Companies operating in many sectors (Retail, Energy) were already teetering before the pandemic and covid-19 will be the bullet to the brain that no amount of stimulus will be able to save. Combined with a pullback in consumer discretionary spending, I don’t see how we aren’t due for a world of pain in 3q/4q once companies start filing and Federal unemployment benefits dry up
OP: give me your high conviction ideas
Commenters: I’m 50% cash
LOL. Talk about conviction.
I don't think you can do any of these trades from your fidelity account...
Simon will complete the their Taubman deal, you can buy the stock at a 20% discount to deal price and get paid in 2-3 months.
Twitter announced a turnaround plan in late March that obviously wasn’t going to help their Q1 numbers, and yet the market (foolishly IMHO) trashed the stock a couple days ago when Q1 numbers were bad. User growth is strong and the plan is to fix monetization and expenses. Two activists just joined board 3 weeks ago. EV per user is half of Facebook with much higher user growth.
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