Pre-Revenue Company Valuation
Which valuation methods would be appropriate in valuing a private, pre-revenue medical device company whose product is pending FDA approval?
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The cheap answer is: get direction from someone more senior than you and do whatever they say.
But if you are looking for more of an interview answer, you would probably do what you do for most biotech companies, which is project out expected revenue from their device given there is only X percentage of approval at each phase. Because this is a medical device and not a drug it might work a little differently but would be similar. If there are decent comps look at those too
I used to work at a pharma/biotech focuses consulting firm. I'd look at this way: what's the total addressable population (people with disease state), how well is it served (do current therapies work ok? Are they cheap? Tolerable?) and what share am I going to garner (first line v second line label, disease severity). Once you've figured out how many people will take the medication then figure out analogs (price comparators for similar indications or perceived level of unmet need) figure in your discounting and rebating then project uptake (quick in oncology potentially very slow in dermatology). Price increases project 3-5% per annum. Don't forget to weight the probability of approval.
Does anyone have a pre-revenue biotech model they could share? (Originally Posted: 12/27/2017)
Hi --
Currently in the process of building a valuation for a pre-revenue biotech company with a clinical stage pipeline (mostly Phase I/II). This is just a learning exercise for me, and I'd love to reference my work alongside someone else's. I understand how to build the valuation from a fundamental standpoint -- weighting the FCFs by the chance of approval, etc. However, I would love a shell to work from. Would anybody be willing to provide me with a bare bones example? It'd be much appreciated. Thank you.
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