Rebels Seize Tripoli

We don't often think of violence as a prevailing factor in the financial arena. Seeing as absolutely none of us on this forum have lived through a world war, a depression or any other of history's great tragic periods it stands to reason that we'd buy into utopian ideas like Efficient Markets and Portfolio Theory.

Reality is quite different, however, and this weekend's turn of events in Libya may do more to effect global financial markets in the long term than any decision made by the Federal Reserve, the Paris Club or the IMF. Seemingly, the the regime of Moammar Gadhafi is on its last legs. The myriad of potential outcomes is as numerous as the spelling variations of the Libyan strongman's name in the Western media. One thing we can be certain of is that more has changed in the MENA region over the past few months than had in decades. Depending on how smoothly the liberalization process goes, they may wind up being the biggest changes the region has experienced in centuries.

Whenever a despot goes down it is like lunch time at the media vulture cafe. Populist preachers hop on their pulpit and bang the drums of ideology. It is always a big farce and party, which ultimately often leads to the entrenchment of a new elitist regime. Actual change and reform is hard to come by in the developing world, especially when the nation involved bares oil or other natural resource riches.

I have long been skeptical of reform in this part of the world, especially when powered by weapons. It is impossible to say what the difference is between the "tyrants" and the "freedom fighters", as the two often share much in common. What I can say with certainty is that a region which had largely been shut off to outside investment from a market perspective will begin to open up. How fast and to what degree of transparency is a hypothesis way beyond my pay grade.

I am hopeful that something good will come out of this latest episode of Team America World Polic in action. For perhaps the first time a NATO exercise took place with some sort of dispersal of responsibilities among America's usual towel boys. Tyranny and one-man, one-state rule seem to be losing steam in the MENA stratosphere. Even the possibility of the region's vast riches no longer being at the whim of sole state proprietors is becoming a reality.

There are just too many possibilities for me to feel comfortable speculating, though you guys are more than welcome. Right now, I would just like to wish the people of Libya good luck in hopes that they can build their country into something they will be proud of and that will help bring economic stability to a troubled part of the world.