So.....um

Try the high potential for recession, decreased discretionary income/reduced consumer confidence, higher oil prices, credit market issues, mortage-foreclosure debacle, etc.

Not to mention that the markets have been pushing intra-day highs based solely on the hopes that the Fed will cut rates at the end of the month...you wont find someone more bullish than me but the market is due for a serious correction (even after what happened a few months ago) as profits (at least domestically) will slow

I would stay large cap with companies who have international exposure and are not as adversely affected by a slowing US economy

DO you guys get annoyed hearing the 'explanations' on CNBC every night, I'm addicted to it...watch it every second I can...but get annoyed with the 'appetizer platter' of explanations you get.

Recession isn't going to happen The credit crisis will ease out, already beginning Mortgage foreclosures will stabilize Oil is mostly a speculative bubble, which will burst (this will be a good bubble to burst) Look at Natty Gas, why isn't that going up (I recommend buying a few Natty Gas plays)

as to why you think oil is a speculative bubble.

Forget our recent run-in - this is not meant to be sarcastic, I am genuinely interested as I have an opposing view (with an expectation that it pushes on $100/barrel).

I'm on board for $100 oil. Inflation adjusted, oil prices are definitely not that high.

Jonny Mack-Attack,

Oil is a speculative bubble for the following reasons.

If a law was passed today making it illegal for someone to buy a contract for oil without the ability to physically TAKE CONTROL OF THE ASSET, then the prices would drop 25%. I heard this from a former international president of a major oil company and it seems rather easy to believe (Re: Exxon, etc.)

You've been owned (just kidding, did i get a rise?)

Jonny,

I'll get back with more but have limited time 2day.

that's an interesting argument. Here's my counter for five; the increase in international trade and the improving living standards in developing nations are leading to increased usage of oil and its by-products. At the same time, production is slowing down and it is costing more to extract from the reserves already discovered. In basic economic terms, the demand curve has moved to the right and the supply curve has moved to the left leading to a higher equilibrium price. Throw in the weakening of the US dollar for all manner of reasons and you get $100 oil.

Unlike most other commodities, intensity of use for oil keeps going up (some say it increases) as standard of living increases. There is the possibility that we haven't reached that point yet (could be the whole green movement looking for a substitute as we speak), but that still means there are a swathe of other countries in line to follow in the more advanced foot-steps.

this week, seems like everyone thinks the other banks are holding more bad cards. really bad cards (ouch)

bb didn't bring a big enough helicopter. (****er)

commodities are a one-way up story for the rest of our lives. (who cares)

dems will win all 3 in 2008 and US economy is finished (market hasn't discounted this yet)

rofl @ that post about outlawing futures, good one