(Originally posted in Investing, Markets, & Macroeconomics forum but got no responses, so re-posting here)
Hey WSO,
I have an opportunity to pick up a sizeable chunk of SpaceX common at $100/share.
It's from an old SpaceX stock incentive plan which avoids ROFR. Direct cap table shares (no fees or carry to an intermediary) without requiring SpaceX's approval.
I've seen some active trading previously in the $60-$70/share, but those were through vehicles that had 1-2%/year and 20% carry
What do people think?
To be clear - Tesla will go bankrupt. Spacex will either go chapter 7 before or after. The Zirp Weimar malinvestment gravy train is in its death throes.
Vastly more successful investors than anyone on this forum have lost billions betting the same thesis.
My guess is that the Elon Musk fan club is so large now that someone will always be there to bail them out. There will always be some sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, VC funds, etc. who would step in in a crisis to provide capital.
Anyway, SpaceX seems to be close to having a huge, fully-reusable rocket, which would be a major technological breakthrough with probably major commercial uses.
No one can give you any kind of real answer without the financials. Do they disclose anything here? Offer any projections? Gonna need some sort of bridge to a FCF proxy and estimated FDSO to understand whether this is actually a good deal.
You're in IB, run the DCF, LBO, PVFSP and comps.
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