Stupid Things Finance People Say

There was a pretty funny article on The Motley Fool today about the things that show up in the financial press.

My favorite one:

"Earnings missed estimates."

No. Earnings don't miss estimates; estimates miss earnings. No one ever says "the weather missed estimates." They blame the weatherman for getting it wrong. Finance is the only industry where people blame their poor forecasting skills on reality.

From fool.com http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/14/stupid-things-finance-…

 
Best Response

Link doesn't work, see handy summary with my annotations*.

"They don't have any debt except for a mortgage and student loans."

OK. And I'm vegan except for bacon-wrapped steak.

*It's called a chegan

"Earnings were positive before one-time charges."

This is Wall Street's equivalent of, "Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"

*Come on, perfectly good reasons to back out nonrecurring stuff, if it actually is one-time and not inherent to the business model

"Earnings missed estimates."

No. Earnings don't miss estimates; estimates miss earnings. No one ever says "the weather missed estimates." They blame the weatherman for getting it wrong. Finance is the only industry where people blame their poor forecasting skills on reality.

*That's because public companies, especially big stable ones are expected to guide analysts and get their estimates in line with earnings before they announce

"Earnings met expectations, but analysts were looking for a beat."

If you're expecting earnings to beat expectations, you don't know what the word "expectations" means.

*It just means the buy-side priced-in a beat of sell-side expectations

"It's a Ponzi scheme."

The number of things called Ponzi schemes that are actually Ponzi schemes rounds to zero. It's become a synonym for "thing I disagree with."

*Madoff

"The [thing not going perfectly] crisis."

Boy who cried wolf, meet analyst who called crisis.

*They write clickbait too, just like Buzzfeed

"He predicted the market crash in 2008."

He also predicted a crash in 2006, 2004, 2003, 2001, 1998, 1997, 1995, 1992, 1989, 1984, 1971...

*Fair enough. Free pass if the crash happened in the last 12 months though, everybody deserves their 15 minutes

"More buyers than sellers."

This is the equivalent of saying someone has more mothers than fathers. There's one buyer and one seller for every trade. Every single one.

*At that price. Thus the price goes down.

"Stocks suffer their biggest drop since September."

You know September was only six weeks ago, right?

*Momentum matters.

"We're cautiously optimistic."

You're also an oxymoron.

*As opposed to rashly pessimistic? Like the crash guy?

[Guy on TV]: "It's time to [buy/sell] stocks."

Who is this advice for? A 20-year-old with 60 years of investing in front of him, or a 82-year-old widow who needs money for a nursing home? Doesn't that make a difference?

*Someone trying to make money. Spoiler, they probably won't if they listen to guys on TV.

"We're neutral on this stock."

Stop it. You don't deserve a paycheck for that.

*Market price things right sometimes. Be man enough to admit it.

"There's minimal downside on this stock."

Some lessons have to be learned the hard way.

*Fair enough.

"We're trying to maximize returns and minimize risks."

Unlike everyone else, who are just dying to set their money ablaze.

*Heath Ledger RIP

"Shares fell after the company lowered guidance."

Guys, they just proved their guidance can be wrong. Why are you taking this new one seriously?

*More likely to be down more if they are wrong again.

"Our bullish case is conservative."

Then it's not a bullish case. It's a conservative case. Those words mean opposite things.

*Your operating projections and valuation can be conservative and get you to a higher price than the market is offering.

"We look where others don't."

This is said by so many investors that it has to be untrue most of the time.

*Others being blind people.

"Is x the next black swan?"

Nassim Taleb's blood pressure rises every time someone says this. You can't predict black swans. That's what makes them dangerous.

*Not using recent historical data. You can still deduce the existence of outlier risks though.

"We're waiting for more certainty."

Good call. Like in 1929, 1999 and 2007, when everyone knew exactly what the future looked like. Can't wait!

*I got nothing

"The Dow is down 50 points as investors react to news of x."

Stop it, you're just making stuff up. "Stocks are down and no one knows why" is the only honest headline in this category.

*The correlation algo CNBC uses to write headlines can be truly awful sometimes.

"Investment guru insert name says stocks are [insert forecast]."

Go to Morningstar.com. Look up that guru's track record against their benchmark. More often than not, their career performance lags an index fund. Stop calling them gurus.

But what if its Tepper's shiny bald head on that TV?

"We're constructive on the market."

I have no idea what that means. I don't think you do, either.

*You like it's prospects.

"[Noun] [verb] bubble."

(That's a sarcastic observation from investor Eddy Elfenbein.)

*I need an example.

"Investors are fleeing the market."

Every stock is owned by someone all the time.

*Again, at the current price.

"We expect more volatility."

There has never been a time when this was not the case. Let me guess, you also expect more winters?

*Than currently.

"This is a strong buy."

What do I do with this? Click the mouse harder when placing the order in my brokerage account?

*No, but you can do curls with bags of money you are about to make.

"He was tired of throwing his money away renting, so he bought a house."

He knows a mortgage is renting money from a bank, right?

*ZIRP, tight credit, spread yada yada

"This is a cyclical bull market in a secular bear."

Vapid nonsense.

*Fair.

"Will Obamacare ruin the economy?"

No. And get a grip.

*Define ruin. Probably at least a headwind. Parting request, please use headwind and tailwind correctly if you are going to use them at all.

 

Claiming that they were mislead when they failed to read the disclosures.

"He that hath a beard is more than a youth, and he that hath no beard is less than a man." ― William Shakespeare, Much Ado About Nothing
 

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