The Venezuela v Guyana flare up makes no sense...
Long story short, very shortly after Guyana discovers a modest amount of oil, Venezuela is suddenly potentially willing to risk war, and even if they win, the cost of war to try to take over that territory.
*To date discoveries put the Guyana oil reserves at an estimated 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil
*Venezuela has roughly 304 billion barrels of oil reserves, more than any other country BY FAR, and well more than they know what to do with.
That means Guyana only has ~3.5% of the oil that Venezuela has.
Why on earth would Venezuela risk war to try to take than little token bit of oil when they have more than they know what to do with already.... They literally can't come close to handling what they already have. How much exponentially more profitable etc would it be to put half the resources they plan to put into war, into getting some of the incredible amounts of oil they already have to market. The comparison isn't even close. You could be off in your financial calculations by hundreds of percent and it still wouldn't be close.
Its almost as if....
tldr: Immediately after China became responsible for the research to determine Venezuela's proven oil reserves (previously it was USA/USA allies) the numbers went parabolic. Along with REE's... at a time when there is immense geopolitical pressure being placed on US politicians to retreat from the middle east. I mean, why not, we have everything we would ever want so much closer to home....
Someone ranted about me not knowing what proven oil reserves truly means, but they completely missed the point. It could mean tiddily winks * NYC underpants gnome population / Cups of coffee Janet Yellen had last month, but that doesn't change the reality that there was a HUGE coincidence where the Venezuela oil reserves went parabolic after the USA's biggest rival took over responsibility for the research to determine proven oil reserves when there is a HUGE motive for them to try to trick us.
Too long didn’t read. You’re geeking out over oil in south america on xmas eve lol who cares
Continue working on time management.
The fact that they discovered oil has me more surprised the US hasn't announced plans to invade/involve themselves in some way quite frankly
You mean “help them establish freedom and democracy”?
Get away with that “invade” conspiracy.
Only one block has been explored in Guyana. Much more to come.
Interesting. Don't get me wrong, sometimes a coincidence is just a coincidence... But... 🤔
First of all, Christmas Eve is a weird time for this, but it takes one to know one.
Second, geopolitics in general right now is characterized by the US partially withdrawing on its international guarantees of free trade because of the US’ newfound energy and food (not so newfound) independence and an isolationist doctrine which basically distills to “I got mine. Get your own.”
In that spirit, the US does not want involvement in other military theaters… but other countries have different plans. Specifically, Russia and China are demographic time bombs and see the next few years as their last twilight years to get strategic objectives done before the bottom falls out of the barrel population-wise. This leads to land grabs in Ukraine, Iran proxy wars in the Levant, provocations in South America, and the crown jewel- potentially making a play for Taiwan, preferably by peaceable means a la Hong Kong. The goal is to stretch the US and her allies along too many fronts to allow strategic feints elsewhere, while also weakening allied faith in the US that she will come to their aid in any one particular situation.
The US is basically playing peacemaker right now. They’re telling Ukraine to make do with what they have and stave Putin off, and there’s growing support for freezing the lines as is, recognizing that Putin has devastated his own conventional military capacity but has a tactical victory in land terms. The US is telling Israel to narrow its aims. A full bombing campaign of Gaza like the US did with Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria with far more civilian casualties is now off the table. People have very little stomach for wars now, and the US is using the shepherd’s crook to corral warring states off of the stage.
TLDR: The US is strong, and its primary adversaries have weakening positions such that they view now as a window off opportunity to strike. They make provocations the world round, and the US plays whack-a-mole trying to wrap up conflicts and keep things together until the demographics semi-permanently shift in the US’ favor. On Maduro, it’s part self-aggrandizement and part being a puppet of China.
Do you have a link to the civilian deaths you citied vs ISIL? Wso might delete your post for citing a source though... Maybe DM it?
From sources like Al Jazeera, I'm seeing things like "US-led coalition ‘killed 1,600 civilians’ in Syria’s Raqqa"
This is a broader reference to the 2013-2017 war between ISIL and the Iraqi coalition as backed by the US. 60K killed by all parties.
I’m sure we can point to a number of conflicts in the last 25 years where the US has been involved and more people have died than in Gaza, which is largely a reflection of people’s reduced appetite for war.
In the long span of history, Iran will be viewed as the line that was held against western imperialism. Ask yourself why america even has beef with anyone in the region and there’s no good answer; even the latest wild goose chase “operation prosperity guardian” is openly declaring America’s intention to forgo diplomacy in lieu of blood for money.
Remember, if america continues to get sucked into the “Greater Israel” plan and attacks Iran, the safety becomes nuclear armed Pakistan…and there’s no winner in that scenario. It’s better not to poke the bear.
EDIT Just remember: America isn’t the good guy. It just is. In the ‘game of thrones’ of the current world, america is just another big power that does what’s good for itself, and that is certainly not what’s good for humanity as a whole. If you’re butthurt by this statement, you’re probably part of the problem 🤪
Which is an insanely Western-centric viewpoint. Why isn't Iran being viewed as an imperialist power foisting it's own beliefs and interests on others? This is why people who use emojis should be ignored on general principle - they're morons.
Well, America had beef with Saddam Hussein because he was a dangerous crime lord who was daily imperiling American lives, not to mention the lives of his own quasi-enslaved serf "citizens". There is a larger argument to be made (which you have neither the intelligence or factual basis to discuss, sadly) that the United States has a vested interest in maintaining a particular global order; America benefits from it's role in the center of the international financial and diplomatic system, and if it wants to continue having the dollar as the reserve currency et al then it can be argued we have obligations to preserve that international order abroad. Also, despite what simpleminded people like yourself think, the world isn't black and white, and even objectionable people with objectionable policies can have good as well as bad intentions - just because a humanitarian explanation is never the only reason, doesn't mean it isn't an important one.
And yet that logic doesn't apply in reverse? I thought the United States was the bad guy? But here you're implying that Iran and Pakistan are ruled by evil, selfish, short sighted warlords who will burn the planet to a crisp on little more than a whim? Attacking a nuclear armed United States, or their interests/proxies, is fine, but doing it to Iran or Pakistan isn't?
Unsurprisingly, your idiotic take betrays a complete lack of logic or rationale.
I'd argue the USA is, today, a more ethical actor on the world stage than many other countries, and certainly many other global powers that have preceded it. If you're butthurt by this statement, you're probably part of the problem.
It’s an act to whip up nationalism back home before the “elections” next year. The Argentinian dictatorship did something similar in the 80s when they invaded the Falkland’s. Harder to invoke the specter of US imperialism when they’re advocating for free elections and opposition candidates to get a fair shot
unite people for a common cause/point to a common enemy/point to potential riches if we unite, and see people forget about revolting on you.
smart move Maduro, smart move...
Obviously there is politics at play, but even factoring that in, the math still doesn't seem to math.
Do you know any Guyanese dudes?
Venezuela has been doing this shit to varying degrees for years - you're just now hearing about it - there won't be a war, it's just posturing on Venezuela's part.
Has the UK sent a warship in response to Guyana before in those other instances? It could have happened, but it just wasn't in western news.
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