Thoughts on Covid Lockdowns 3 years after the fact?

3 years ago today, the US announced the '15 Days to Slow the Spread' initiative to combat Covid. What are your thoughts on the covid response in hindsight? Which country/countries do you think had the best covid response? 


I was looking at some threads from 2020/2021 and lockdowns seemed to be quite popular. Many people were ridiculing and scolding people who were anti-lockdown/mask/restrictions. For those who were pro-lockdown/masks/restrictions, has your mind changed on these policies?

 
Most Helpful

Every study that's been run on the costs vs outcomes have shown that the anti-lockdown side was 100% correct. Sweden is a shining example to the rest of the EU. The entire world is still suffering from the aftereffects of decisions made because of the lockdowns and those will repercussions continue to be felt for years to come. Not to even begin touching on the deaths of despair, poor health outcomes due to people not getting the care they needed since it wasn't covid-related, or what it's done to an entire generation of young children who missed out on years of critical early childhood development - those damages are verging on incalculable. Anyone who even tries to argue that the lockdowns were in any way shape or form effective or worth it are the real "science" deniers, and with each passing month the vaccine debate is trending in the exact same direction.

Lesson hopefully learned: when big governments and corporations unite in their messaging saying that they're here to help and only doing something for your benefit, you turn and run in the opposite direction.

Edit:

Masks did nothing. We knew at the start they did nothing. Fauci even admitted at the start that they did nothing. Then they became a tool for measuring compliance, for forcing conformity over a population, and then for virtue signaling between those who supported the lockdown regime. They were literal theater as evidenced by the unending parade of politicians, health officials, and media personalities caught putting them on just for their "performances" in front of the camera and removing them right afterward, in addition to outright violating the very lockdown rules they were advocating for. They flat out lied about treatment alternatives like Ivermectin, trying to pass it off as "horse paste" when it's a drug that won a Nobel prize for its use in humans and is one of the WHO's essential medicines.

Instead, our utterly corrupt pharmaceutical regulatory establishment pushed a vaccine which has a "99% effectiveness" tag on it because it reduces your likelihood of death from 0.001% to 0.00001% (so, technically correct tho debatable it's that effective) with an immune response that's weaker than your own natural immune system's. A vaccine that prevents neither the catching nor the spreading of the virus itself, making all sense of "requiring a negative test OR proof of vaccination" an obvious overreach and pointless exercise in government power. The fact that the US still has this requirement for people flying in legally from other countries is astoundingly disgusting considering you can just walk across the Southern border without so much as an ID check. And did I mention that this vaccine was also the most profitable drug in history by a magnitude of >100x? Not bad for not even being able to prevent you from catching the virus it's literally changing your DNA to protect you from, a virus less likely to kill you than the average flu unless you happen to be 75+ or with multiple comorbidities. Definitely no moral hazard there. No sir. They just care about people out of the goodness of their hearts.

"The obedient always think of themselves as virtuous rather than cowardly" - Robert A. Wilson | "If you don't have any enemies in life you have never stood up for anything" - Winston Churchill | "It's a testament to the sheer belligerence of the profession that people would rather argue about the 'risk-adjusted returns' of using inferior tooth cleaning methods." - kellycriterion
 
PrivateTechquity 🚀GME+BBBY🚀

Lesson hopefully learned: when big governments and corporations unite in their messaging saying that they're here to help and only doing something for your benefit, you turn and run in the opposite direction.

The famous nine words, "I'm from the government and I'm here to help".

The poster formerly known as theAudiophile. Just turned up to 11, like the stereo.
 

One of the very few things I agreed with Reagan on.

"The obedient always think of themselves as virtuous rather than cowardly" - Robert A. Wilson | "If you don't have any enemies in life you have never stood up for anything" - Winston Churchill | "It's a testament to the sheer belligerence of the profession that people would rather argue about the 'risk-adjusted returns' of using inferior tooth cleaning methods." - kellycriterion
 
PrivateTechquity 🚀GME+BBBY🚀

Every study that's been run on the costs vs outcomes have shown that the anti-lockdown side was 100% correct.

Please cite.

I'd be willing to grant that from a purely economic perspective, the people who advocated for ignoring the COVID-19 virus were correct.  On the flip side, the US recorded something over a million excess deaths during COVID, and it is nearly impossible to argue that number would have been lower if everyone had just gone out and continued to live life.  It probably would have been significantly higher.

It depends on what you think is more important, I guess.  The government asked people to stay home and be safe and wear masks so that citizens wouldn't die.  Frankly, many people didn't bother with that, so it's hard to say how impactful it really was versus the impacts of the virus of itself.  But I think government's first priority is the life and safety of it's citizens, not gross economic output.

 
Funniest

Ozymandia

Please cite.

I'd be willing to grant that from a purely economic perspective, the people who advocated for ignoring the COVID-19 virus were correct.  On the flip side, the US recorded something over a million excess deaths during COVID, and it is nearly impossible to argue that number would have been lower if everyone had just gone out and continued to live life.  It probably would have been significantly higher.

Do you have a source on that?

Source?

A source. I need a source.

Sorry, I mean I need a source that explicitly states your argument. This is just tangential to the discussion.

No, you can't make inferences and observations from the sources you've gathered. Any additional comments from you MUST be a subset of the information from the sources you've gathered.

You can't make normative statements from empirical evidence.

Do you have a degree in that field?

A college degree? In that field?

Then your arguments are invalid.

No, it doesn't matter how close those data points are correlated. Correlation does not equal causation.

Correlation does not equal causation.

CORRELATION. DOES. NOT. EQUAL. CAUSATION.

You still haven't provided me a valid source yet.

Nope, still haven't.

Deboonker: Image Gallery (Sorted by Favorites) (List View) | Know Your Meme

.

It depends on what you think is more important, I guess.  The government asked people to stay home and be safe and wear masks so that citizens wouldn't die.  Frankly, many people didn't bother with that, so it's hard to say how impactful it really was versus the impacts of the virus of itself.  But I think government's first priority is the life and safety of it's citizens, not gross economic output.

You are so right! Protecting the lives of citizens is super important to the Government!

It only took FEMA a few weeks to get rolling over that chemical train derailment.

They're shipping 100s of billions to Ukraine to fight a losing war defending their border but leaving our own wide open to criminals and traffickers.

They'll do nothing to address that pesky fentanyl epidemic that's directly contributed to by said border weaknesses.

They'll set up a healthcare system that empowers insurance companies and administrators over actual care providers while explicitly structuring the industry from the ground up to require that they increase prices in order to grow their profits.

They'll shut down gyms and tell people to stay at home and indoors in the middle of a pandemic that overwhelmingly effects overweight people with vitamin D deficiency over all other demographic subcategories.

They'll tell working class people who had no other way to provide for their families that they are "non-essential" and therefore were not allowed to work or risk being thrown in a cage.

They'll cripple or shut down millions of small businesses nationwide while leaving big box retailers and other large corps unmolested during a time when they are facing unprecedented financial strains directly resulting from the pandemic response.

But it's only because your life & safety is so important to the Government that they would ever go to such extremes. 🤡

"The obedient always think of themselves as virtuous rather than cowardly" - Robert A. Wilson | "If you don't have any enemies in life you have never stood up for anything" - Winston Churchill | "It's a testament to the sheer belligerence of the profession that people would rather argue about the 'risk-adjusted returns' of using inferior tooth cleaning methods." - kellycriterion
 
Controversial

Source.

I know that to be a conservative is to be a troll, because the facts so rarely support your beliefs, but I'm ready to have an intelligent discussion when you are.  As I said, I'll even grant you that the shutdowns related to COVID-19 caused economic harm; frankly, that seems incontrovertible.  My question is, how many dead Americans is it worth to wipe out that loss?  Many people died from COVID, or because hospitals were overrun with COVID patients and couldn't process others... and the federal/state response had to balance "how many people will die" versus "how much economic harm will we do".  If you aren't acknowledging that fundamental issue, then you shouldn't be pretending to be an adult here.

With hindsight, everything is easier.  I happen to think that preservation of life is more important than preservation of property, and that the US government as a whole reacted appropriately. You don't.  I imagine that if many of your loved ones were ill and died because they couldn't get treatment in May 2020 in a state that didn't "lock down" (in your parlance) because they thought it made political sense to let people get ill if they wanted, you'd be changing your tune.  Isn't that what being a conservative is all about?  Empathy for those you knows, disdain for those you don't?

 

I notice how you never actually provided your source though? You explicitly mentioned that you have several studies which all prove that lockdown was bad, or something similar, and yet you become fucking unhinged when you get asked to provide your studies.

 

Cochrane Review is about as authoritative as it gets and their conclusion, released this months, is that masking accomplished fuck all.  Other research suggesting that masking not only did nothing to stop transmission, but actually worsened the severity of infection for the wearer - https://townhall.com/tipsheet/scottmorefield/2022/06/05/new-study-mask-…

"The government asked people to stay home and be safe and wear masks."  This is a complete non-sequitur.  It was known at the time that ppl reusing single-use cloth masks, as 99% of ppl did, did nothing to prevent transmission.  So where's the correlation between wearing a mask and "safety?"  

Also, the government asked people to stay home?  They asked them to wear a mask?  C'mon, dawg. And, frankly, the most discouraging revelation to come from COVID wasn't that all of our public health organizations repeatedly shit all over themselves and lost all institutional trust, it was that the American public didn't kick back on the mandates en masse.  I'm not talking about kicking back immediately before everyone knew what the fuck was going on, but after over 2 fucking years where it become abundantly clear that the masking, lockdowns, limited capacity, etc. was COMPLETELY ineffective, the technocrats and politicians who rammed it down our throats weren't abiding by it themselves, and they were continually lying, not incorrect but lying, to us about everything COVID related - from masking efficacy, to death rates, to symptomatic treatments, to vaccine efficacy, to the origins of the virus itself.  

I come from down in the valley, where mister when you're young, they bring you up to do like your daddy done
 
Ozymandia
PrivateTechquity 🚀GME+BBBY🚀

Every study that's been run on the costs vs outcomes have shown that the anti-lockdown side was 100% correct.

Please cite.

I'd be willing to grant that from a purely economic perspective, the people who advocated for ignoring the COVID-19 virus were correct.  On the flip side, the US recorded something over a million excess deaths during COVID, and it is nearly impossible to argue that number would have been lower if everyone had just gone out and continued to live life.  It probably would have been significantly higher.

It depends on what you think is more important, I guess.  The government asked people to stay home and be safe and wear masks so that citizens wouldn't die.  Frankly, many people didn't bother with that, so it's hard to say how impactful it really was versus the impacts of the virus of itself.  But I think government's first priority is the life and safety of it's citizens, not gross economic output.

Many died due to lack of access to care because Covid shut down most frontline providers. These were largely already very sick and older people, and Covid likely accelerated their deaths, but what was their quality of life and expectancy as a baseline? I am not trying to be overly harsh, but if you look at the statistics, it is telling. 

 

Yea, you aren't going to get a quote from him because they pulled it out of their ass lol. Their arguments are so solid that apparently they have to make up studies to back it lol. A lot of conservatives are just having a tought time dealing with the fact that reality often doesn't support their viewpoint so now they have recently decided to just make up their own facts/science. Sad.

 

Don't let facts get in the way of your story, bro

https://jogh.org/2022/jogh-12-05017

Conclusions

There was no trade-off between public health policy and economy during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Nordic region. Sweden’s relaxed and delayed COVID-19 health policy response did not benefit the economy in the short term, while leading to disproportionate COVID-19 hospitalizations and mortality.

 
iggs99988

Solid take, but nobody is asking the real question: how's BBBY doing bud? 

Bankruptcy pricing after it's been established that's off the table with the preferred equity + warrants raise? Picked up another 20k BBBY shares and a few new GME leaps today to close out the week. Just rolling cash on hand after selling my puts on banks from last week and buying this sweet dip!

"The obedient always think of themselves as virtuous rather than cowardly" - Robert A. Wilson | "If you don't have any enemies in life you have never stood up for anything" - Winston Churchill | "It's a testament to the sheer belligerence of the profession that people would rather argue about the 'risk-adjusted returns' of using inferior tooth cleaning methods." - kellycriterion
 

Also when the media, in unison, literally parrots the same exact lines and no one is allow to question them at all, you know something is very wrong. We also now know that the virus was created in a lab by the Chinese government with funding from the NIH/Fauci. Believe whatever you like, but I don't believe the leak was an accident and neither do I believe that it was coincidentally leaked during the 2020 elections. 

 

Enjoy some double irony when you see who's pointing this out

"The obedient always think of themselves as virtuous rather than cowardly" - Robert A. Wilson | "If you don't have any enemies in life you have never stood up for anything" - Winston Churchill | "It's a testament to the sheer belligerence of the profession that people would rather argue about the 'risk-adjusted returns' of using inferior tooth cleaning methods." - kellycriterion
 

I think the initial “2 weeks to slow the spread” plan was well-founded. There was a real risk of hospitals, especially in dense areas, being overrun and causing a general collapse in the healthcare system.

The subsequent issues in my mind were twofold:

First, we never established what “flattening the curve” actually meant. It sounds horrible, but there are a certain number of deaths that we accept to keep society running (national speed limit of 30 anyone? didn’t think so). When making societal decisions, you have to do so based on statistics and principles, but establishing the appropriate level is nigh impossible - no one wants to look a child in the eye and tell them that their mother’s death was an acceptable sacrifice for the rest of us. This made it extremely difficult to get back to normal even as the curve flattened

Second, the issue became massively politicized and caused people to side blindly with their tribes. I know countless republicans who were terrified of the disease when it was portrayed as this impending plague that China was hiding, and they were massive proponents of lockdowns and masks even when very few Americans were actually dying - then once it became a political hot button issue, they all flipped 180 degrees overnight and COVID wasn’t real even as death rates in the US skyrocketed. Conversely, I also knew countless democrats who were very pro-science upfront and then clung to masks even in scenarios where they were unnecessary and to isolation long after it made sense to do so. People began to identify with an all-or-nothing mentality, which was highly counterproductive

My guess is that 50 years from now, we look at it as a logical reaction to something unknown and deadly, but we also mismanaged the response such that it was both less effective (due to noncompliance) and protracted (due to tribalism and inertia)

 

I think this is a very good view on what happened now in retrospect. I'm no doctor (and therefore will not express any opinion on medical science), but I really hope that we do analyze the best practices from what worked well and didn't. Granted, that exact approach is what governments/the medical profession claims to do after something like this happens and we make the same mistakes anyway, but I completely agree that the data is going to be very important as to how to make a decision in the future.

Quant (ˈkwänt) n: An expert, someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing.
 
TryTheDip

Second, the issue became massively politicized and caused people to side blindly with their tribes. I know countless republicans who were terrified of the disease when it was portrayed as this impending plague that China was hiding, and they were massive proponents of lockdowns and masks even when very few Americans were actually dying - then once it became a political hot button issue, they all flipped 180 degrees overnight and COVID wasn't real even as death rates in the US skyrocketed. Conversely, I also knew countless democrats who were very pro-science upfront and then clung to masks even in scenarios where they were unnecessary and to isolation long after it made sense to do so. People began to identify with an all-or-nothing mentality, which was highly counterproductive

I will merely point out that wearing a mask when it is no longer necessary is a personal choice that impacts no one.  Refusing to wear a mask when it is effective in slowing the spread of a virus is dangerous to other people.  So while you are right at a high level, that people blindly clung to whatever they're "tribe" told them to do, you are kind of wrong in making this a case of "both sides."  One "tribe" erred on the side of caution and decency, the other decided that their comfort was more important than other people's lives.

Also, masks do slow the spread of the virus, and wearing one does make you somewhat less likely to be infected.  So it's not actually unreasonable to continue wearing a mask, not just for COVID but for all the other workaday viruses that make the rounds every year.

 

I entirely agree with the efficacy of masks. I disagree that the people I’m referring to were solely speaking for themselves. I have no issue with individuals who continue to wear masks today or with private businesses that choose to enforce masking (although I’d prefer not to). Perhaps I should have clarified, but I’m thinking specifically of individuals I know who wanted (and in some cases still want) this enforced via public institutions and policies after vaccines became widely available. 

 

I thought we had established what flattening the curve was--implementing a policy to prevent the overwhelming of the healthcare system, which was pretty much successful. The problem is, the Covidians morphed that into a "zero Covid" policy while failing to establish a viable, long-term plan to get the world back to normal. You had some cities in the U.S. that were in effective lockdown until the summer of 2021, refusing to establish a long-term plan to get back to normal. You had totally arbitrary policies about physical distancing, building capacities, vaccine requirements, school closures, etc. because politicians were desperate to show that they were in control.

What saddens me the most is how the American public lusted for authoritarianism. They rewarded virtually every politician that engaged in the most arbitrary, fascistic, un-American behaviors--governors Gavin Newsom, Kathy Hochul, Gretchen Whitmer, Phil Murphy, for example. Donald Trump, for all of his many failures as a human being, had the opportunity to act like the fascist he has been labeled, yet when push came to shove, those accusing Trump of fascism shut down churches and small businesses and worked hand in hand with major corporations, they muzzled people literally (with masks) and figuratively (through censorship), and cost countless people their jobs through un-scientific, illogical vaccine mandates. They acted like petty tyrants and the American public rewarded most of them. And because of that, I despise my own country. I no longer consider myself a patriotic American because we as a nation stand for nothing.   

 
GoingGoingCaught

You had totally arbitrary policies about physical distancing

I went to an outdoor bar in early 2021 and they were not allowing people to stand by their chairs under an umbrella (in the rain), forcing us to sit in a wet chair instead that wasn't under an umbrella. Insanity.

Quant (ˈkwänt) n: An expert, someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing.
 

Pierogi Equities

GoingGoingCaught

You had totally arbitrary policies about physical distancing

I went to an outdoor bar in early 2021 and they were not allowing people to stand by their chairs under an umbrella (in the rain), forcing us to sit in a wet chair instead that wasn't under an umbrella. Insanity.

Similar for me. I went to an inside bar in Washington, D.C. in 2021. If you stood up from your seat at your table (these were tall bar tables) you had to put on a mask; if you sat back down you could remove the mask. The waiter got on me several times about it. Later that evening, the waiter and my friend (this was a gay bar) went to the back room and you know the rest.

 

I was cool with 2 weeks.. maybe even 2 months. 
 

After that it just got really stupid.. I’m mostly mad about how I didn’t have an LLC or fake company to take advantage of the PPP and corporate bailout bullshit, which of course was a literal wealth transfer to those who mostly didn’t even need it 

Also my hairline receded at least half an inch. MotherFUCKERS 

 
ebitduh2016

I was cool with 2 weeks.. maybe even 2 months. 
 

After that it just got really stupid.. I'm mostly mad about how I didn't have an LLC or fake company to take advantage of the PPP and corporate bailout bullshit, which of course was a literal wealth transfer to those who mostly didn't even need it 

You mean a wealth transfer program, which the sitting President demanded not have any oversight, was abused?  *shocked pikachu face*

If you are so upset, you should advocate for a post-facto investigation into recipients of PPP funds.  I'd be on board with that.  I agree there was a lot of fraud - but that's to be expected, given the rollout and the extreme lack of interest from the executive branch in enforcing effective disbursement of funds.  Shocking, just shocking, that a known con man and grifter made it easier to grift the government.

 

There's a lot of history already found about the PPP funds, but I agree more research and digging should be done. Entirely too much money of fraudelenty appropriated funds. All these people running around buying Lamborghinis or homes or else off of fake paper.

The poster formerly known as theAudiophile. Just turned up to 11, like the stereo.
 
wasabisoya

3 years ago today, the US announced the '15 Days to Slow the Spread' initiative to combat Covid. What are your thoughts on the covid response in hindsight? Which country/countries do you think had the best covid response? 

I was looking at some threads from 2020/2021 and lockdowns seemed to be quite popular. Many people were ridiculing and scolding people who were anti-lockdown/mask/restrictions. For those who were pro-lockdown/masks/restrictions, has your mind changed on these policies?

The US did not have lockdowns, and all the voluntary requests were pretty roundly ignored.

 
iercurenc

Wow what a shitty take.

It isn't a take, it's a correction.  If you want to be taken seriously, use your words.  No one was forced to "lock down."  Citizens in China were locked down by their government; as we saw for the last three years, that didn't happen to many Americans.  About the worst that happened was a bunch of private businesses and hospitals demanded that customers/patients employ basic decency when entering those spaces.

So yeah, the "shitty take" is the one that claims that the fairly gentle calls to respect your fellow citizens' health and safety were some kind of dystopian nightmare government intrusion into your lives.  Like being asked to wear a piece of cloth over your face for twenty minutes is equivalent to being in a concentration camp or some such nonsense.

 

Ozymandia

The US did not have lockdowns

🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

A Guide to State Coronavirus Reopenings and Lockdowns

image-20230316212723-1

"The obedient always think of themselves as virtuous rather than cowardly" - Robert A. Wilson | "If you don't have any enemies in life you have never stood up for anything" - Winston Churchill | "It's a testament to the sheer belligerence of the profession that people would rather argue about the 'risk-adjusted returns' of using inferior tooth cleaning methods." - kellycriterion
 
PrivateTechquity 🚀GME+BBBY🚀

Ozymandia

The US did not have lockdowns

🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

A Guide to State Coronavirus Reopenings and Lockdowns

image-20230316212723-1

Perhaps you don't know what "lockdown" means.  I wouldn't be surprised.

Use your words.  I know you have them.  And once you've found the accurate ones (and "lockdown" self-evidently isn't one of them), we can debate the important issue, which is whether several weeks of moderate restrictions on most businesses was an acceptable price to pay to prevent additional death.

Somehow, the whole "COVID-19 restrictions are worse that concentration camps!" crowd never seems to look past their own comfort and think of the safety of others.

 

This is patently false, and you know it.  Everyone repeating this years after the fact knows it, but they are hoping that no one remembers what took place. Unfortunately for you, the internet is forever and the last 3 years of history have been more well-documented than any other time in human history. 

I still have the letter explaining that I was an essential employee somewhere I was forced to carry around with me on my commute in case the Gestapo stopped me and asked why I was dangerously walking outside.  


You even gave up the ghost in your reply...you admit that there were lockdowns, but it's alright because they were "necessary" and perhaps not enforced at the point of a gun...although perhaps you'd have liked that? 

"When you stop striving for perfection, you might as well be dead."
 
PeterMullersKeyboard

This is patently false, and you know it.  Everyone repeating this years after the fact knows it, but they are hoping that no one remembers what took place. Unfortunately for you, the internet is forever and the last 3 years of history have been more well-documented than any other time in human history. 

So you can point me to the instances of the American government locking people into their homes.   Please do!  I'm more than willing to admit when I'm wrong.... but not on your assertion that "the internet is forever"

I still have the letter explaining that I was an essential employee somewhere I was forced to carry around with me on my commute in case the Gestapo stopped me and asked why I was dangerously walking outside.  

Ah yes, the Gestapo, that most American of institutions.  Your absurd hyperbole does a lot to add credence to your argument.  Can you find me an example of someone being arrested or otherwise detained for not having this letter, or one like it?  Because your an anonymous stranger on the internet referring to the police as the Gestapo - your credibility isn't particularly high.


You even gave up the ghost in your reply...you admit that there were lockdowns, but it's alright because they were "necessary" and perhaps not enforced at the point of a gun...although perhaps you'd have liked that? 

Where did I "admit there were lockdowns"?  I understand that foolish children, like yourself, aren't used to being challenged and thus get to live in their own make believe world, but I'm not in the habit of letting people put words in my mouth.

Find me an example, and preferably enough to prove that this was a systemic government policy, of people being physically or legally locked in their homes, and I'll gladly admit I'm wrong.  Or, you could be an adult, admit that no one did more than ask that you stay home to prevent the spread of the virus, and move on.  But if you had the maturity to do that, you wouldn't hold the beliefs you do, so I shall not hold my breath

 

How do you manage to top yourself with the worst possible takes? Literally 14 MS and you still defend a position which is patently false. Why do you enjoy trolling so much? Or do you genuinely believe this nonsense?

 
Sequoia

How do you manage to top yourself with the worst possible takes? Literally 14 MS and you still defend a position which is patently false. Why do you enjoy trolling so much? Or do you genuinely believe this nonsense?

Well, the actual Merriam Webster definition that was cited leaves some room for dispute - technically the government did not prevent you from going to a bar, it merely did not let the bar open.  Most bars aren't open on Sunday morning, either - but we don't call that a lockdown.

And in a larger sense, when you look at the range of reactions across the globe, it's also quite clear that the United States took one of the most hands-off approaches to COVID possible.  No curfew.  No literally being locked in a building.  Just "bars and major venues cannot seat people indoors".

And why in the world do you think I care about MS?  Especially if I don't know who is throwing it?  I care about reasoned, supported arguments that prove me wrong or at least cast considerable doubt, and I'm always willing to hear those.  Some anonymous idiot throwing shit... it's like asking if you'll take investing advice from an anonymous online poll, or whether you'll ask some people who know what they're talking about to explain why they believe what they do.  I'm sure some of the anonymous poll answerers know what they are talking about, but maybe not.

I mean, they guy who throws MS at me and then compares the extremely mild inconvenience to which he was put in 2020 as "being stopped by the Gestapo" is not an opinion I am inclined to value.

 

Annihilated.  

Anyone telling you “NYC is back” because they took a walk outside at lunch and saw people buzzing about, is a certified moron. 

The small proportion of mom & pops that survived are sucking wind.  The city is dead at night relative to what it once was.  Even CVS type places rarely stay open 24 hours now.  We’ve permanently destroyed city life as it was once known.

 

almost exactly 3y from my original post on this, interesting to revisit this

https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/off-topic/how-im-navigating-the-c…

  1. initial panic is rational. with an unknown pathogen that has the potential to be a population level disaster, one should panic until we know more. what became apparent to me is that as we knew more the panic didn't adjust and instead it delved into an us vs. them situation which is total nonsense
  2. no clue what countries had the best response because quite frankly I don't care. that's in the past, I'm not going to ever be in public health, and the likelihood I ever move away from SE USA is slim to none, this just is fodder for conversations with people whose entire lives revolve around news over which they have no control that inevitably turns into an argument or a circle jerk of agreement, no thanks. now, if you want to talk about the pros and cons of specific policies because you have an election coming up and you're trying to figure it out, fine. but just saying SK did it best or sweden did it best or whatever...*yawn*
  3. what is clear to me now is that this virus went in stages which from an evolutionary standpoint (viruses want to survive and spread), makes sense
    1. deadly to a lot, no idea how to treat it, potentially 50x more virulent than we anticipated (if you believe the serology studies from santa clara), potentially worse outcomes for ventilator people
    2. deadly to a lot but meaningfully fewer people, better ideas on treatment maybe, doesn't seem to be killing healthy folks of any age in a significant way
    3. more and more easily spread but weakening in terms of mortality. not touching the vaccine/natural immunity argument, I don't care
    4. why the fuck are we still talking about this? (this is where I was spring 2022 and remain today)
    5. finally, it doesn't seem that the advice changed as rapidly as the virus, which while government won't ever learn, individuals should learn to adapt to changing circumstances as the circumstances change, lose your ego and be willing to be wrong. people that said covid didn't exist, you're wrong. people that said you need to never leave the house or else you'll die and kill every grandma in sight, you're wrong. and that's ok
  4. helicopter money won't stop a pandemic, but it will stop a bear market...temporarily

now for some personal reflections

  1. via negativa - if it's not adding to your life, cut it out. I left social media 100% in july ish of 2020, I do not miss it. I have since become an evangelist for getting the fuck off of socials, they are poison to the mind. I believe as a result of my mind not being bombarded with algorithms all day long my sleep has improved, my stress has decreased, my ability to make sound judgments and think critically have all improved. maybe someone less smooth brained than me doesn't need to leave, but I have to believe many would benefit from a full exit. 
  2. try new shit - covid was a great time to rearrange your life and I hope to not let the next crisis go to waste either, I can confidently say I am now fluent in 2 foreign languages since covid began (1 of which I spoke exactly 0 when the pandemic began, other I was probably A2 level), I have never been in better physical shape, and have never been closer to my wife
  3. fear of death will keep you from living - a hindu client of mine who lived in a particularly strict state said it best "we're all going to die anyway, so why not live right now?" I'm glad I took his advice to heart, I traveled internationally 5x  from dec 2020-june 2022 and I'm so glad I did. yes mask bullshit was annoying but it didn't ruin the vacation. on the other hand, you could be like someone I know who was in incredible shape for his age (or someone 20y his junior for that matter) retired 2y before covid and was so afraid of getting sick that they did nothing outside of their very strict bubble. he later caught covid, had a mild case, and regrets his actions. also, you never know what's going to get you, he ended up getting a cancer diagnosis and now likely won't be able to do much of anything due to radiation/chemo/etc. get busy living or get busy dying kiddies
  4. the news media is not real life - I travelled throughout much of the country during the pandemic (NY, IL, WI, VA, MD, FL, GA, TN, TX, LA, CA, CO, SC, NC) and the differences were more cultural than covid policy related. sure, I didn't have to wear a mask hardly at all in charleston whereas in chicago I did, big whoop, I still got to have some great food with great friends, and that's what I'll remember moreso than whoever had what policy. just get after it, life is short and the vast majority of people I know who complained about the pandemic on either side of the argument got too wrapped up in being "right" instead of just appreciating being alive
  5. forgive yourself - I did not stick with my long distance running, meditation, or yoga habits. instead for cardio I do jiu jitsu (sparring is WAY harder than a 5K) & swimming, meditation took a backseat to just doing breathwork, and yoga has just turned into a 10-15minute evening stretch. I'm glad I tried to start some new habits, and I ended up in a good place I think, but didn't end up sticking with everything new I started
  6. chill - I shouldn't be such a hardo all the time. I caught delta towards end of 2021 after some travel (airport lounge, great cocktails, bad air circulation) and tried to "sweat it out," wrong move. now when I'm sick I'll just do sauna and stretch, no need to be a hero and from a physiological standpoint it just flat out doesn't work. or maybe I'm just on the wrong side of 30 and it stops working around then, who knows. I also worked overly hard in 2021 because there was so much new business opportunities to have and I took hardly any time off. yes I went abroad but I left a lot of vacation days on the table, so now I'm more deliberate about how hard I work and am more intentional, still a work in progress though
  7. community - just like physical and mental toughness, maintaining good friendships takes work, and while my circle of friends has shrunk as I've aged, with all of the free time the pandemic gave most of us (particularly early on) I had so many good laughs via facetime with old friends that I wouldn't have otherwise had. be there for others, and if you're struggling, reach out to a friend, they love you and that's why you're friends, even if they don't have any genius insight to share, getting things off your chest helps

in closing, I know many are still struggling and while I don't have as much to say generally as I did in previous years, I'm always happy to do Q&A whether public or private so if you need somebody, I got you

 

Refreshing post. I'm not immune to being upset by people 'forgetting' about lockdowns and pretending the negative impacts don't exist but like the positive to this post. Couple things I did during pandemic (which was actually a net positive on my own life, though I recognize that's not the case with lots of folks -- esp kids in college. I was lucky enough to be a young professional):

1. Reconnecting again with family. Had a pretty 'meh' relationship with fam before pandemic but living with them for 1+yr really helped us reconnect and really pushed me to recognize how much I love and appreciate my parents. That time with them, just talking aroung the house, taking walks, watching movies, taking long drives, etc I'll always treasure as a special time

2. Reconnecting again with friends. Bunch of long-standing connections in my geo at the time that I'd neglected...we were all living at home and hung out a TON. I still have really strong connections with all of those folks now and am so thankful for having rekindled those bonds. Also reconnected with a few cousins as well. Same thing for FT / phone calls, I made sure to stay in touch with everyone I cared about through the pandemic. Still stay in touch with pretty much all of them, and all of those bonds without exception are stronger than they were pre pandemic 

3. Losing weight. Lopped off probably 15lb through the pandemic. Continuing to work on that now, think I'll be pretty happy with BF% by mid summer or so

4. Getting real good at work. Working remote over Covid offered plenty of free time / flexibility away from a boss who could be sometimes toxic (though very sharp) and let me blossom as a professional. I also did a bunch of side reading that's made me a much better investor 

5. Taking time to reflect on what I love, where I want to be LT city-wise. Wont' say too much here for sake of anonymity but I'm hoping to make the geographic / position pivot this year if possible. Either way was eye-opening  

All said, I had a fantastic time during Covid. Only things I'd change is really accelerating weight loss over Covid but otherwise not much else. Pandemic was not easy to get through for many I realize, but these kinds of positive experiences are actaully more common than you'd think -- several of my friends have commented the same. Great things are there if you just look for them and work towards them

 

https://jogh.org/2022/jogh-12-05017

Coronavirus pandemic in the Nordic countries: Health policy and economy trade-off

Furqan B Irfan1,2, Raoul Minetti3, Ben Telford4, Fahad S Ahmed5, Ayesha Y Syed6, Nick Hollon4, Seth C Brauman4, William Cunningham1, Mohamed E Awad4, Khaled J Saleh4, Akbar K Waljee7,8, Nele Brusselaers9,10

Results

Sweden’s health policy, being by far the most relaxed response to COVID-19, was found to have the largest COVID-19 incidence and mortality, and the highest AWPC increases for both indicators (13.5, 95% CI = 5.6, 22.0, P < 0.001; 6.3, 95% CI = 3.5, 9.1, P < 0.001). Denmark had the highest number of COVID-19 tests per capita, consistent with their approach of increased testing as a preventive strategy for disease transmission. Iceland had the second-highest number of tests per capita due to their mass-testing, contact tracing, quarantine and isolation response. Only Norway had a significant increase in unemployment (AMPC = 2.8%, 95% CI = 0.7-4.9, P < 0.009) while the percentage change in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was insignificant for all countries.

Conclusions

There was no trade-off between public health policy and economy during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Nordic region. Sweden’s relaxed and delayed COVID-19 health policy response did not benefit the economy in the short term, while leading to disproportionate COVID-19 hospitalizations and mortality.

 

Anti-lockdown people were right in the long run. That said, they were very wrong early on in the pandemic.

You don't just say "*$&% it" when you don't have enough information to evaluate the situation. 

Problem on the other hand was that we didn't pivot back to normality fast enough when we knew that it wasn't as deadly as expected. Other side of the coin. You have clarity of information but are choosing not to admit that you were wrong.

 

What you describe as anti-lockdowner is the most rational and normal response. However, I knew people who were rabidly anti-lockdown even during the first two weeks. Those people were wrong even if they were in the long run right on THIS pandemic.

 

From the same study:

Sweden had 10x the hospitalizations and deaths from COVID

image-20230316210030-1

meanwhile, the Swedish stock market fared the worst of all these countries

image-20230316210201-2

and for the coup de grace, the 1 year after COVID - Norway had GDP of (0.6%) meanwhile Sweden had (2.1%).  Sweden's economy shrunk much more than its peers.  What a winning strategy!

image-20230316211759-3