Ukraine, geopolitics, midterms
I wanted to briefly discuss geopolitics. I hope this is allowed. If it is not, I apologize. The last post on WSO discussing Ukraine was over 4 years ago.
I will begin by saying I used to be the biggest supporter of Ukraine. They are sovereign country invaded by force. They are a victim. I still believe that, but I have less conviction. I looked into Ukraine's history. It is a land mass that has changed hands 8 times in the last 400 years. To call Ukraine a "buffer country" (like Afghanistan) is an overstatement. It is porous land border that has been absorbed by whatever empire is next to it, from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth to the Ottoman Empire to the USSR. This will neither be the first nor last time this piece of land changes hand.
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Now enough with the historical context - I know Russian propaganda sometimes uses that. The bigger issue is there is no clear path to victory. After 4 years, neither side has made any progress. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of young men have died. I ask myself the question: would I be willing to die for Ukraine? The answer is no. It seems many Ukrainians now feel the same.
I am not convinced the continuation of this war benefits anyone besides Zelensky, the military industrial complex, and frankly China - which has benefitted from discounted Russian gas + increased leverage over their northern neighbor. I think Kissinger would agree with the statement "don't poke the bear if you can't kill it." My question to Democrats enraged at Trump is: what's the end game here?
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Zooming out, how are you all feeling about midterms? I cannot bring myself to vote for Trump's Republican party. I disagree on too many issues, and "America First" has been a disappointment to say the least. I also have a hard time voting for Democrats. As I've gotten older, I feel myself becoming more and more conservative: with the exception of my views on climate change and the national parks. Call me immature, but I also find left-leaning voters to be the greatest argument against voting left.
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Don't take any of this too seriously. This is just a brain dump. Just curious your thoughts...
This isn’t that complicated and has been discussed here to death.
Putin is a brutal dictator who invaded and attempted to destabilize a sovereign nation. There is no “but Ukraine actually bad.” They don’t have to give up. They have the right to defend themselves.
And Trump’s two years have, predictably, been an unmitigated disaster. He ran on releasing the Epstein files, lowering prices for Americans, and keeping America out of war. Republicans have since kept the Epstein files secret because it implicates them (specifically Trump and Lutnick), prices are through the roof, and started a completely unnecessary war that we are losing because Hegseth is an incompetent buffoon.
Not voting for a Democratic politician because some 17 year old left wing college student is annoying also makes you a buffoon.
In my experience, people who describe complex geopolitical matters as "this isn't that complicated" generally don't have a thorough understanding. Not saying that's you, but that's just my observation.
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What does "right to defend themselves" mean? I have never heard this phrase in a historical context.
Yes, I suppose they can do whatever they want, assuming:
Marlin, you are the person who said "Don't take any of this too seriously. This is just a brain dump. Just curious your thoughts..." in your initial post. I thought we were "just talking." Don't get pedantic on me now.
All geopolitical situations are functionally complicated, but both of the two you mentioned (Ukraine, Republicans in the midterms) are morally uncomplicated. They are also high-level uncomplicated, which is how geopolitical situations get discussed on internet message boards, because neither of us are going to spend the time to write or read or source 10,000-word analyses on the topic. We're posting a couple paragraphs back and forth.
More importantly, you aren't making good faith arguments. You've never heard the concept of a country's sovereign right to defend itself in a historical context? You must be joking.
Yes the war is at a stalemate, but the answer to that is for the aggressor to fuck right off. You'd have given Hitler France and Poland too.
Yes. I suppose the Byzantine had a "right to defend itself" from the Ottomans. Persia had a "right to defend" itself from Alexander the Great. China had a "right to defend" itself from the Mongols.
What does that term mean? A "right" implies it is something endowed (i.e., by god) - not taken.
Please see 1, 2, and 3 above. Are you willing to fight for Ukraine? Are you prepared to send your sons and daughters? Increasingly, I find myself in agreement with Trump, Vance, Rubio, and Elon Musk.
You are a caricature of a right winger who is embarassed to call themselves a Republican so they pretend to be some sort of enlightened centrist.
You are “increasingly agreeing with Trump, Vance, Rubio, and Musk” because you have always been a right wing reactionary.
Stop being a pussy and just own it. Come out of the closet.
We can agree to shake hands on conservationism (national parks, clean rivers, etc) as long as it comes with an admission of where the worlds dirtiest rivers are and where most of the pollution comes from, and to agree not to bring that citizenry into the US. Conservatives don't hate the environment- they hate head up your ass policies like windfarms (which never pay for themselves) and carbon taxes while ignoring (and importing) the worst offenders.
Anyway- on Ukraine. I try to put myself in Putin's shoes: More and more countries joining NATO, NATO refusing admission to Russia. Russia used anew as the world's boogey man (remember the "reset" in 2012, only to be followed by debunked "Russian collusion" in 16 and beyond?). Color revolution in '14 to install an anti-Russia government. Said government tries to join NATO, NATO forces massing in Syria.. Eventually he realized that saber rattling was useless, and if he waited longer and "negotiated" more, his position only weakens. Wouldn't be surprised if his intelligence had proof NATO was behind the '14 revolution.
Imagine if this all happened in Mexico- they have a revolution that installs a pro-China government (or Iran, or whatever boogey man you want). Said revolution reeks of being instigated by Chinese intelligence. Then Mexico tries to join an alliance with China. Chinese troops start massing in Guatemala. I hope we'd have the balls to declare Mexico an occupied state and to go in and forcibly remove the government before too many Chinese troops are entrenched in the area.
To your last paragraph- "America first" has been a disappointment because no one actually espouses it. No one is evaluating policies through the lens of "the best thing for Americans". Partially because they can't agree what an American is- by their definition, anyone anywhere who vaguely fancies "the constitution" is a potential American.
Younger generations don't fear upheaval because they don't have "a good thing going" that they fear to lose. So hopefully we will see the emergence of politicians with the will to do what needs to be done. However our voting populace is getting replaced at rates offsetting that political undercurrent, so such a movement may end up smothered in the crib.
Yeah, at no point was this "debunked" anywhere beyond right wing media. Russia absolutely colluded with the Trump campaign and unsurprisingly still is, as Trump is currently, as we speak, cowtowing to Putin over congress, the country, and our allies.
Ah yes, when $100k of facebook ads were purchased by a Russian (with some in support of HRC). Can't wait to buy the next election with my brokerage account.
Trump ran on ending the Ukraine war. He won. Negotiating with Putin is his mandate. He's made his base mad because he hasn't done it soon enough. Ukraine has been conscripting women and old men to the front lines.
"Surely, just one more weapons package and the Ukrainians will win! Pls bro, send your tax dollars for this border dispute on the other side of the world. Just one more, I swear bro pls"
^you
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