Ukraine, geopolitics, midterms
I wanted to briefly discuss geopolitics. I hope this is allowed. If it is not, I apologize. The last post on WSO discussing Ukraine was over 4 years ago.
I will begin by saying I used to be the biggest supporter of Ukraine. They are sovereign country invaded by force. They are a victim. I still believe that, but I have less conviction. I looked into Ukraine's history. It is a land mass that has changed hands 8 times in the last 400 years. To call Ukraine a "buffer country" (like Afghanistan) is an overstatement. It is porous land border that has been absorbed by whatever empire is next to it, from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth to the Ottoman Empire to the USSR. This will neither be the first nor last time this piece of land changes hand.
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Now enough with the historical context - I know Russian propaganda sometimes uses that. The bigger issue is there is no clear path to victory. After 4 years, neither side has made any progress. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of young men have died. I ask myself the question: would I be willing to die for Ukraine? The answer is no. It seems many Ukrainians now feel the same.
I am not convinced the continuation of this war benefits anyone besides Zelensky, the military industrial complex, and frankly China - which has benefitted from discounted Russian gas + increased leverage over their northern neighbor. I think Kissinger would agree with the statement "don't poke the bear if you can't kill it." My question to Democrats enraged at Trump is: what's the end game here?
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Zooming out, how are you all feeling about midterms? I cannot bring myself to vote for Trump's Republican party. I disagree on too many issues, and "America First" has been a disappointment to say the least. I also have a hard time voting for Democrats. As I've gotten older, I feel myself becoming more and more conservative: with the exception of my views on climate change and the national parks. Call me immature, but I also find left-leaning voters to be the greatest argument against voting left.
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Don't take any of this too seriously. This is just a brain dump. Just curious your thoughts...
This isn’t that complicated and has been discussed here to death.
Putin is a brutal dictator who invaded and attempted to destabilize a sovereign nation. There is no “but Ukraine actually bad.” They don’t have to give up. They have the right to defend themselves.
And Trump’s two years have, predictably, been an unmitigated disaster. He ran on releasing the Epstein files, lowering prices for Americans, and keeping America out of war. Republicans have since kept the Epstein files secret because it implicates them (specifically Trump and Lutnick), prices are through the roof, and started a completely unnecessary war that we are losing because Hegseth is an incompetent buffoon.
Not voting for a Democratic politician because some 17 year old left wing college student is annoying also makes you a buffoon.
In my experience, people who describe complex geopolitical matters as "this isn't that complicated" generally don't have a thorough understanding. Not saying that's you, but that's just my observation.
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What does "right to defend themselves" mean? I have never heard this phrase in a historical context.
Yes, I suppose they can do whatever they want, assuming:
Marlin, you are the person who said "Don't take any of this too seriously. This is just a brain dump. Just curious your thoughts..." in your initial post. I thought we were "just talking." Don't get pedantic on me now.
All geopolitical situations are functionally complicated, but both of the two you mentioned (Ukraine, Republicans in the midterms) are morally uncomplicated. They are also high-level uncomplicated, which is how geopolitical situations get discussed on internet message boards, because neither of us are going to spend the time to write or read or source 10,000-word analyses on the topic. We're posting a couple paragraphs back and forth.
More importantly, you aren't making good faith arguments. You've never heard the concept of a country's sovereign right to defend itself in a historical context? You must be joking.
Yes the war is at a stalemate, but the answer to that is for the aggressor to fuck right off. You'd have given Hitler France and Poland too.
We can agree to shake hands on conservationism (national parks, clean rivers, etc) as long as it comes with an admission of where the worlds dirtiest rivers are and where most of the pollution comes from, and to agree not to bring that citizenry into the US. Conservatives don't hate the environment- they hate head up your ass policies like windfarms (which never pay for themselves) and carbon taxes while ignoring (and importing) the worst offenders.
Anyway- on Ukraine. I try to put myself in Putin's shoes: More and more countries joining NATO, NATO refusing admission to Russia. Russia used anew as the world's boogey man (remember the "reset" in 2012, only to be followed by debunked "Russian collusion" in 16 and beyond?). Color revolution in '14 to install an anti-Russia government. Said government tries to join NATO, NATO forces massing in Syria.. Eventually he realized that saber rattling was useless, and if he waited longer and "negotiated" more, his position only weakens. Wouldn't be surprised if his intelligence had proof NATO was behind the '14 revolution.
Imagine if this all happened in Mexico- they have a revolution that installs a pro-China government (or Iran, or whatever boogey man you want). Said revolution reeks of being instigated by Chinese intelligence. Then Mexico tries to join an alliance with China. Chinese troops start massing in Guatemala. I hope we'd have the balls to declare Mexico an occupied state and to go in and forcibly remove the government before too many Chinese troops are entrenched in the area.
To your last paragraph- "America first" has been a disappointment because no one actually espouses it. No one is evaluating policies through the lens of "the best thing for Americans". Partially because they can't agree what an American is- by their definition, anyone anywhere who vaguely fancies "the constitution" is a potential American.
Younger generations don't fear upheaval because they don't have "a good thing going" that they fear to lose. So hopefully we will see the emergence of politicians with the will to do what needs to be done. However our voting populace is getting replaced at rates offsetting that political undercurrent, so such a movement may end up smothered in the crib.
Yeah, at no point was this "debunked" anywhere beyond right wing media. Russia absolutely colluded with the Trump campaign and unsurprisingly still is, as Trump is currently, as we speak, cowtowing to Putin over congress, the country, and our allies.
Ah yes, when $100k of facebook ads were purchased by a Russian (with some in support of HRC). Can't wait to buy the next election with my brokerage account.
Trump ran on ending the Ukraine war. He won. Negotiating with Putin is his mandate. He's made his base mad because he hasn't done it soon enough. Ukraine has been conscripting women and old men to the front lines.
"Surely, just one more weapons package and the Ukrainians will win! Pls bro, send your tax dollars for this border dispute on the other side of the world. Just one more, I swear bro pls"
^you
Putin apologists are genuinely embarrassing.
Russia gate wasn't debunked, it's just pathetic that Clinton actually lost to Trump.
Thanks for sharing. I have to say, I agree with most of what you said.
This comment section has also helped give me more clarity. It seems I have many differences of opinions compared to more liberal people on here. As a few others pointed out, perhaps I am indeed a conservative and not an independent (although I did vote for Biden previously).
Maybe I should just pick a lane and stick to it. Curious what your plan is for midterms?
Fuck picking a lane. Perfectly acceptable to act like an "enlightened independent" when talking to liberals. Conservative beliefs are the only ones that can get you fired or killed. Don't play by their rules- you don't need to wear your political affiliation on your sleeve when the other side controls the culture.
As for the midterms- the elections on my ballot are pretty uncontroversial. Broadly I think it is a candidate by candidate thing. Would not vote for Vivek. Would not vote for Greg Abbot. Both are happy to import hordes of foreigners right at the time AI is threatening jobs and housing is unaffordable. Would rather suffer under their opponents to show the GOP what kind of candidate doesn't fly. Any republican who isn't vocal on immigration doesn't get my vote.
This is one of the weirdest takes I've ever seen on this. At no point has any NATO or western aligned members threatened Russian sovereignty. Why do former eastern bloc countries want to join NATO? Because they are scared Russia will do exactly what they are doing to Ukraine. If I put myself in Putin's shoes, I want to open trade, enable commerce, work closer with China, enable energy exports. He's done nothing but posture for his own self interests. None of this is in the interest of the Russian citizenry. It's destroying the wealth of the nation. He even betrayed a former diplomatic agreement this disarmed Ukraine's nuclear capability. Is that what an expansionist nation does? What a retarded take. This is like negative IQ shit.
I love liberals
Does your dick work yet?
Nothing he said is wrong. People on the right pretend to be centrists or not into politics. There is even a term for it (shy Trump voter).
Well, I should have known most people here probably lean conservative, given how many are privileged little guys pretending to be self-made. But come on, man. You can’t seriously justify Putin invading a sovereign nation, trying to manipulate politics in countries around the world, and threatening even more nations.
Your country helped drive NATO’s expansion and spent much of the last century portraying the Soviet Union as the enemy. Now that Russia is actually invading a sovereign country, you act like little bitces and support your president buying resources directly from them.
The mental gymnastics here are insane.
This is what’s crazy, Americans and especially republicans never supported Russia until compromised Trump started to bend over for Putin
100%. Republics historically have been Russia hawks until this admin. Everyone changing their tune now (which from Europe looks completely bizarre) thanks to some talking heads and algo feeds.
You're not undecided. You're conservative, but you want to vote for Democrats without feeling like you're siding with the people you can't stand. That's not a political philosophy, that's just an identity crisis. Pick a lane based on policy, not on which voters annoy you less.
The population of Ukraine wants to fight. The viable alternatives to Zel are more anti russia. If he steps down/loses an election then fine, but the replacement will probably get more aggressive. It's similar to how BiBi in Israel is the moderate candidate and his replacement will probably be even more violent.
The republican party is a far right Christian nationalist party. Unless you think the handmaidens tale is cool you really should not vote for them. The dems are a center right party. Literally Ronald Reagan was more to the left than many prominent dems currently are (ex immigration/Israel/some tax policies). Republicans get power in the US and fuck everything up. It's extremely telling that this site which used to glaze Trump and Vivek (for some reason) stopped talking politics when Trump decided to act on his campaign promises. Dems are better for the economy and the country in general.
I stopped supporting Trump specifically because he has not acted on his campaign promises: mass deportations and no war.
I wish I could trick my subconscious into being liberal so that I'd start thinking Trump and the GOP are 1% of the dictators you think they are. Oh how happy I would be.
Trump is currently mass deporting. He's just a moron that can't do it correctly so it comes off as cruel. Trump talked out of both sides of his mouth about wars. If you think the guy who dropped a MOAB on Afghanistan in his first term was going to be a dove (while doing the whole "dove" thing in 2016) idk what to say man you might not be as smart as you think you are. Trump ran on Tarrifs as well and did those to horrific effect. Again Republicans are not good at running things.
Trump and his ilk are petty dictators. Again Trump is a moron so it comes off as stupid. But again the guy tried to overturn the 2020 election so whats new.
"Trump isn't fascist enough. I wish he was more of a fascist" is a classic WSO take.
Do they? If I recall correctly, the vast majority of their soldiers are now drafted conscripts
Like I said, they can do whatever they want. With or without American support.
Granted, they've made zero net gains in 4 years, but they can do whatever they want.
The Ukraine population does not want to fight. They literally have to kidnap men off the street and ship them away in unmarked vans to the front lines because they are running out of people. Zelensky doesn’t want the war to end because he’s getting uber rich off of it.
Dems are not better for the economy and country. Open borders and widespread fraud is destroying this country. Republicans aren’t much better but a moderate republican is better than a leftist dem 10/10.
Well, your user name makes sense at least
If Russia succeeds in annexing large parts of Ukraine the predictable outcome is a rapid build up of nuclear arms across the world. Can’t quite stress enough how clear eyed this war is making some.
The only case in history when a nuclear armed nation (Ukraine had the 3rd largest stockpile at some point?) gave up its arsenal under American and Russian guarantees only for both to be broken. If they lose territory in this war it’s effectively carte Blanche for any nuclear power to do the same, and so everyone else will try to cultivate their own.
I was optimistic that Trump’s naked Europe bashing, tariffs, and more recent access restrictions for Mythos earlier this year and now starshield in Ukraine would wake Europe up to be more competitive, but that’s not happening.
At least the Americans are straddling themselves in more debt I guess. Go figure.
Its actually hilarious the brainwashing that a senile orange PDF has done to the world.
Just because he admires dictators he convinced a good chunk of his base that someone who assassinates his political enemies with nerve agents and radioactive chemicals in the UK, squashes all political opposition internally by making them dissapear, commits human rights violations across the entire world and is the clearest version our modern day Hitler somehow is viewed favorably because he gave the 80 year old orange man a painting.
Russia's botting of the internet over the last decade has worked better and faster than their wildest dreams.
They're cattle, man. Just unbelievably stupid people.
Who cares if you would be willing to die for Ukraine? Is anybody asking you to?
Can you provide a source for your claim that Ukrainians don’t want to die for their national freedom?
The fact is that Ukraine has fought Russia to an impressive standstill. If we weren’t retarded, we would use to our benefit the enormous cost Ukraine has extracted from Russia. Instead, we’re considering given Russia economic relief with an energy deal smdh
tbh op is prob a russian bot or a paid russian puppet like Tim Poole or the like
true
How can I get paid to be a Russian bot? I've got bills man
Yes, just look up percentage of volunteer vs. conscripted troops.
Indeed, the people in Crimea do not even want to be Ukrainian. You can look up polling done by the Pew Research Center, Gallop, and other third-party independent pollsters going back to 2008.
The prolongation of this war does not this conflict does not advance American interests for the reasons I discussed. President Trump recognizes this.
Conscription in an existential war is the historical norm, not evidence that a population won’t fight. The stronger test is whether the mobilized actually fight, desert en masse, or surrender — and Ukraine’s lines have held for four years.
Russia isn’t fighting for Crimea — it took that in 2014. It’s fighting for all of Ukraine. At what point did the other 40 million Ukrainians decide they’d rather be Russian? (And the Crimea polling is flimsy anyway — the 80%+ numbers only show up after the occupation.)
How does this not advance American interests? Our chief adversary has burned through ~1M casualties and its Soviet-era arsenal for a fraction of our defense budget and zero American troops. That’s the best ROI in US foreign policy history. The only way to lose it is to hand Putin sanctions relief right as his losses outpace recruitment.
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