Ukraine situation
Wondering what everyone’s thoughts on the situation between Ukraine and Russia is. What’s to come? How should the US react?
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Not willing to die for a corrupt oligarchy over bullshit power politics.
And I'm not talking about Russia.
That’s bullshit. You are a right wing authoritarian, you have admitted it on here. Your entire ideology is dying for a corrupt oligarchies over bullshit power politics.
I've been tracking it somewhat closely. Surprised we're officially sending people there. I figured there's been a presence of OGA contractors and maybe some SOF (like Green Berets/ Raiders doing FID stuff). I'm a bit concerned only because my childhood friend is weeks away from being a team guy (just wrapping up SQT)...
Forward Observations Group on IG/ Youtube actually puts out some content regarding the situation, especially in their AMA stories.
Russia's main objective is that Ukraine doesn't join NATO, they want to keep a barrier with the West. Also the old sentiment they have that Ukraine belongs to Russia with the old Sovjet Union and all. I think Russia will not fully invade Russia because the repercussions would be incredible for Putin's inner circle, stuff like blocking them from international money markets, freezing assets, bank accounts. The cost war wise will also be steep because Ukraine has a sizeable army and it's a big country. Also Russia had enormous issues with Chechnya's rebels in the past, which were far less formidable.
The US is gonna take a hard line because of the lost of face in the wolrd with the whole Afghanhistan debacle and also if Russia invades Ukraine, what would stop China from invading Taiwan, which is far more problematic for the interests of the US. Although I don't think they will actually send troops to fight to Ukraine, perhaps small black ops kinda operations.
I think in the end there will be some kind of agreement where Ukraine doesn't join Nato and Putin doesn't lose face. Europe and especially Germany can't really afford the Gas pipelines and stuff shutting down so they will be willing to deal.
This is a very good analysis
Taiwan? What Taiwan?
WA CAO!!
Do you think Ukraine will keep Crimea or Russia will eventually take it back?
I never believed that Putin is this old-school conqueror type who wants to restore the glory of the USSR. He is an incredibly corrupt dictator with sliding popularity, and he needs a scapegoat. So he keeps pushing the nonsense that Ukraine is some kind of threat as a distraction. He is not going to invade, if he really wanted to invade he would have just done it instead of letting this massive tension build up.
I agree with you for a lot of stuff but trash take here. He absolutely does want Ukraine.
Source: greencard fiancée
That's what the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny says: that the West fundamentally misunderstands Putin, who is in his view more paranoid about internal, not external threats. She introduced me to him, so technically you are correct about it.
I don't think we should commit anything here aside from sanctions. Definitely no military response, why would we waste lives and dollars for a regime we don't care about?
so the military industrial complex can get rich $$$$$$$$$$$$
I do not believe this will affect the median American or even Wall Street other than O&G teams. Russia is simply not an economic power these days. My guess is we'd see a steep drop in equities like in March 2020 but a quick recovery once people chill and realize that Russia is inconsequential outside of European O&G. Only way I see this being a huge threat would be the use of tactical nuclear weapons, but I would bet nearly everything that Putin would not risk a nuclear conflict over this.
Lmao if Russia used nukes for this the world would end. Not at all happening.
If Russia used a tactical nuke in Ukraine, the world would most certainly not end. Western leaders are not stupid, they would not retaliate with some all-out nuclear strike. Russia is an irrelevant country other than O&G and military strength. The West would essentially sanction Russia into oblivion. You'd probably see some short-sighted Americans calling for blood, but I don't think that would actually happen, at least under Biden.
That's for a situation with a tactical nuke against a military target. A strategic nuke against a civilian target? I would still lean into sanctions, but I ultimately can't give a full opinion.
Unless Russia was continuously nuking Western targets, the west has no reason to respond tit-for-tat with nukes. NATO can play the "bigger person" and not retaliate. The post Crimea & MH17 sanctions have had a severe impact on the Russian economy. I can't imagine what would happen to them economically if they used nuclear weapons.
On a similar note, if this was a similar situation but with China & Taiwan, I have no idea what would happen. The West doesn't lose much cutting off Russia, but with China, it's completely different. They have a stellar internal propaganda machine that Russia hasn't had since the early 1980s. I guarantee you many Russians would respond negatively to a first strike, but I personally can't say the same about a China/Taiwan situation. I assume China is watching closely. If the US fumbles with both Afghanistan AND Ukraine, it's a huge signal to China re: Taiwan.
Edit: China is the only major country that most Americans see as a threat.
how would America react to Russia lining missiles up along the Mexican border
Not to mention Russia has been invaded by the United States in the past, while Russia has not done the same to the United States. A precedent has been set that we are willing to invade Russia if given the opportunity, and Putin will do anything he can to stop it. Ukraine is critical to Russia's defensibility.
The difference is America has never invaded Mexico. Russia snatched Crimea up without giving a second thought. So there is precedent for Russia being an aggressor in Ukraine.
In modern history, yes, but bruh, how do you think we got Texas?
Yes, we actually have just over a century ago in 1914 and 1916 during the Mexican revolution. Plenty of corrolaries to what Russia is facing with Ukraine at the moment. So even if history never repeats itself, it always rhymes at least.
The bottom line here is this: Ukrainian chicks are hot but only when they are young.
The real analysis no one is talking about.
This is hilarious. Start from 2:00.
Holy fuck did Zuckerberg build this guy?
We owe them nothing. Honestly the rest of the West owes us a massive amount for the decades of work that we've done making shipping lanes safe & massive spending we've done to facilitates global trade while they spent all their money on BS social programs (which they could only do because we subsidized most of their military spending)
Such a dumb take. There's no such thing as "owing" a country anything - sovereign nations make decisions based on their best interests. Sure, the US can be almost entirely credited with the facilitation of globalization via its soft and hard power and alot of its allies have benefitted from this. But America has benefitted immensely from this. you're looking at this in a vacuum.
1) For Ukrainian people, the sooner the get rid of the liberal regime, the better. They traded multi-billion yearly revenues for gas transit in exchange of LOANS from the EU which also require ''reforms'' as in ousting Ukrainian owners and replace them with Western ones. They have also lost a sizeable chunk of their youth and working age population due to emigration, often illegal, because people didn't want to be conscripted and sent to die against a brother country in the name of Western oligarchs.
2) US politics when it comes to Russia has lost any sense of rationality. The military complex pays media (see Politico) to push for a war against a giga nuclear power. That is insane and shows an unbelievable amount of corruption in US political media. Liberals in the past decades have built a genocidal hatred against Russians, because the latter are a Christian country that rejects surrendering its sovereignty to unelected global bureaucracies, while also rejecting the woke project of dismantling and erasing the nuclear families. Worst of all, the biggest crime of Russians is that they are white. Republican leaders, what's left of Neocons and in general ''foreign policy experts'' somehow convinced themselves that Russia was the biggest threat for the past decades, ignoring Chinese rise (because it filled their pockets). Eventually, they made China and Russia ally against the US out of convenience.
3) Russia has no interest in invading Ukraine, it'll just make it collapse on its own. However, the liberal regime in Kiev desperately depends on Western money to survive and the higher the perception of the Russian threat is, the more they get. Hence try really hard to get a NATO membership, which ironically will force Russia to invade before they do.
In conclusion, the ideal scenario for humanity would be the US testing its new diverse and inclusive army, according to the latest recruitment ads and Mark Milley, by sending 2-3 million people into Ukraine,with a rigorously high representation of trans-BIPOC trans-women, especially in leadership position. Then a Russian invasion to fix things.
HONK
Yeah the libs here hate any country that isn't democracy as being pure evil. Dude, democracy is fine and all but it's not the only way for a country to run smoothly. One could make an argument that over time democracy is incompatible with a society running smoothly LT -- i.e. America. Rome survived 500yrs as a Republic but 1500yrs as an Empire...again, not that everything worked well but sheer longevity is critical to consider. The Pandyan Empire lasted over 1500yrs. The American experiment is not even 300yrs old, you can't make these arguments of superiority until you've crossed the first millennium at least. Again, I like living in a democratic state but I am open-minded to places that are less so (i.e. hybrid states like Singapore). Just be aware democracy itself does not hold a fundamental high ground as the only structure that's "allowed"
Secondly, to neink's argument the libs hate all religion...which correlates with hating all religious states. U.S. hates the Middle East - among other reasons - because they are highly religious, faithful people. The U.S. hates Russia as it's managed to hold on to Christianity. To be clear, not claiming that we directly destroying religion in other countries as the #1 factor in liberal decision making but you're naive if you believe this isn't one motivation. Religion assimilates structures that are also not necessarily democratic (i.e. tribal chiefs in Aghanistan), which again the left hates as well as the fact that they have teachings that aren't woke (i.e. tHere ArE 19 GeNDerS)
It's not religion, nor democracy, it's race.
There are like 70 countries in the world that have death sentence for homosexuality, you don't see libs losing their minds over any of them. However if Russia bans homosexual propaganda for kids, then they are fucking evil. This disparity of treatment is the same you see when it comes to violent crimes, especially if sexually related. Similarly, terrorist attacks.
Imagine if New York endlessly built public housing to the point where they made up 77% of residences. Then, after the BLM protests, they mandated that every single apartment building and neighborhood be forcibly integrated so the demographics matched that of the city as a whole. That's basically what Singapore did, their ideas on race are way too far even for me. If you want a nice far right country to jerk off to, try Saudi Arabia or Afghanistan.
A country where 36% of the population attends church weekly is apparently “genocidal” towards a country where 6% of the population attends church weekly because they’re Christian.
This is what happens when your only social interactions are on 4chan. Please breathe some fresh air. US foreign policy is not based around destruction of white Christians.
https://www.pewforum.org/2018/06/13/how-religious-commitment-varies-by-…
Wtf does Chruch attendance have to do with genocide???
Who the fuck cares? We've got enough to worry about in the US and the President of Ukraine doesn't seem to think it's a big deal. Biden's just desperate for a conflict as every President with shitty support numbers is - war is good for approval ratings. Funny how it was bleated about 2008-2016, suddenly became barely spoken of 2016-2020, and the moment the old guard is back in charge the conflict resumes. Don't fall for the warmongers.
Really? How come Biden got us out of Afghanistan while Trump pussied out? (and now calls for going back in there again)
I hope you wear a thick helmet when you go outside little buddy, sharp corners are dangerous!
Haha half joking, do you think BIden actually cares about re-election? Sure yes he wants to be a well-loved president for his legacy, but there is no way that guy can actually think he'll run for re-election. All politics aside, he's so physically aged - and by the time the presidency end he will have aged 4x as fast - that I don't think it's even plausible for him to run again from a biological perspective. Like I don't think he could handle the stress and toll which comes from running a campaign, especially while already holding office.
Not at all. If he was seriously going to run for a second term he would already be out fundraising and talking about how the risk of Trump returning is a "true threat to democracy" or some fluff like that. Trump's built up a $120m+ war chest already and hasn't even formally made the announcement yet, meanwhile the media has been starting to really throw some mud at DeSantis but nothing has stuck yet. I would bet a lot of money that the Dems are still fighting internally over who will be running as the next nominee - the Biden camp probably realizes realistically Biden has 0 chance both from an approval and health perspective, meanwhile they want to prevent Kamala from taking center stage because she's more disliked than Cheney was after he shot that guy in the face and would risk upstaging Biden's current role. Hilary has been putting out feelers because she's a bitter old woman who still wants her turn but also realistically has no chance. I'm very interested to see who all they choose to back, something like 30 veteran Dems have all announced they're going into retirement so I expect we'll see some of the younger faces step up.
From the US perspective this is nothing more than an attempt to change the news cycle and focus off of the econonmy, social strife at home and an attempt to try and sideline Trump for 2024. Also to help boost the price of oil to try and payback the energy companies for all of the fucking up the market the idiot we have in the White House has done.
From the European perspective this is an energy situation, I personally think the Europeans are encouraging Russia to drive natural gas price up. The EU recently approved natural gas as a green energy source.
From the Russian perspective this is nothing more than a news story to boost the price of energy.
The US Government, regardless of administration, is a lot better and more effective than most Americans give it credit for
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