As the title lets say I'm the first one to see this hurricane coming and I put my life saving in GNRC and RGA, is this insider trading? Yes, I'm regarded.
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Yes, unless you told me second
No (not legal advice) - the general view of the SEC/CFTC is for you to insider trade you must do so on the basis of Material Non Public Information (MNPI) and MNPI can only be generated by the company itself.
As a morbid example if you saw the planes hit the WTC first in 2001 and shorted the airline stocks before anyone you didn't insider trade as there was no MNPI created by the company rather you were just the first to witness/discover public information. A different example is if you personally fly to the site of a mine that a mining company says exists discover it's not there and short the stock and then tell the world that the mine doesnt exist again didn't insider trade as the information was public just not discovered by anyone else yet (but the company did commit securities fraud by lying about the mine existing). The 2nd example is generally how Short Hedge Funds work.
Now if you got a text from an exec of the company that the mine didn't actually exist or that earnings (MNPI) were going to miss and traded on that info it is insider trading as you acted on MNPI.
The morbid example is exactly how Bobby Axelrod became a billionaire.
Only thing to add here is that the theoretical crime under the law is basically predicated on the idea of stealing information that didn't rightfully belong to you and making money off of it, and also making money at the expense of the other shareholders because of it. MNPI is the stealing information that didn't rightfully belong to you part, as all of the other hypothetical circumstances involve obtaining information in aboveboard ways. People can sometimes think that insider trading is just having the drop on everyone and trading on that, but the necessary element is having information you are not supposed to have that constitutes MNPI.
Not anybody's lawyer, but I tell it like I see it.
Based on the most helpful WSO content, insider trading typically involves trading a public company's stock or other securities based on material, non-public information about the company. In the case of a meteorologist using their knowledge of an upcoming hurricane to invest in companies like GNRC (Generac Holdings, which manufactures backup power generation products) and RGA (Reinsurance Group of America), this scenario does not fit the traditional definition of insider trading.
Here are some key points to consider:
Therefore, using meteorological data to make investment decisions would not typically be considered insider trading. However, always consult with a legal expert for specific advice and to ensure compliance with all relevant laws and regulations.
Sources: https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/investment-banking/junior-rbc-analyst-charged-with-insider-trading?customgpt=1, Modern Insider Trading - Food for Thought, Opportunities in the wake of Harvey, https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/investment-banking/junior-rbc-analyst-charged-with-insider-trading?customgpt=1, Any energy traders here?
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