Associate 3 in PE - LBOs

Is it just you or same for all other associates? 

All the other associates left at noon today, so I’d say even less than me.

 

Is this the same in UMM? Currently in banking about to leave to UMM and while market is dead, the work just does not stop (pitches etc)

 

Can’t make deal works at 10% interest rate and less leverage available. 

Existing sponsors can’t sell assets because they’ve marked them way above what they are currently worth and can’t sell without exposing that the assets are over-marked. Doing so would jeopardize future fundraising. So they hold the asset hoping things “go back to normal”.

Funds that didn’t raise a fresh pot or capital the last 12-24 months are in a trouble. Prepare for many down funds and reverse operating leverage. 

 

People don't seem to understand that the entire LBO model is broken now indefinitely. The LBO frenzy began and ended with the zero interest rate environment we've enjoyed over the last 15 years. No longer will the asset allocators masquerading as private equity experts be able to pile on mountains of cheap debt onto low growth companies and financial engineer their way to an outsized equity return. The only PE firms that will find success in this environment are the ones who can drive real value creation within their ops. When the interest rate of senior secured debt is suddenly in the double digits, why would any LP in their right mind allocate dollars to a ~15% IRR PE fund with significantly more risk than a private credit shop? Dark times ahead

 
greyarea23

People don't seem to understand that the entire LBO model is broken now indefinitely. The LBO frenzy began and ended with the zero interest rate environment we've enjoyed over the last 15 years. No longer will the asset allocators masquerading as private equity experts be able to pile on mountains of cheap debt onto low growth companies and financial engineer their way to an outsized equity return. The only PE firms that will find success in this environment are the ones who can drive real value creation within their ops. When the interest rate of senior secured debt is suddenly in the double digits, why would any LP in their right mind allocate dollars to a ~15% IRR PE fund with significantly more risk than a private credit shop? Dark times ahead

Or if rates actually remain elevated then valuations just rationalize and equity is underwritten to higher than 15%.... 

 
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Great in theory. In practice - it won't happen at least in the short term. 

Most of PE trades today are between various PE funds. The whole "ponzi scheme" characterization of PE isn't far off in some cases. So you're going to underwrite to 25% returns - great - that really means valuations are going way down. Great for the buyer. Now put on your seller hat because your fund is sitting on a bunch of portcos. Are you willing to take a bath on those investments? 9 out of 10 times underwriting models assume exit = entry multiple - play around and see what happens if you need to take a 2-3 turn discount on exit. Obviously this has a disproportionate effect on companies that traded at huge multiples with max leverage. 

 

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