Are the rain making days of PE gone for our generations?

It seems with all the consolidation in PE landscape, there are going to be less funds “on the rise”, growing, etc.

Making partner at any MF seems impossible nowadays. There are already folks 10-15 years ahead of us who have been waiting for a decade.

Is it possible to have a mega successful career in PE if you’re in your young 20s nowadays?

22 Comments
 

Most people would consider a $5m-$10m+ net worth mega successful, which is a reasonably common outcome for anyone in PE that makes it all the way to partner (obviously incredibly difficult in its own right). Very few other "salaried" careers (i.e. you've spent your entire career working for someone else) can reasonably expect that sort of outcome. So yes you can be uber successful if PE becomes your career (you don't just leave after ASO/VP to CorpDev or something).

Are you likely to be the next Henry Kravis of Steve Schwarzman? Doubtful. But then again, you're not exactly redefining the blueprints of an industry that's now been around for 50+ years. I'm sure there will be 1 or 2 guys like that made with the rise of AI but who knows. We're just as likely to see the existing MFs absorb that trend and become the pinnacle of finance for the next 50+ years. 

"If you don't have any enemies in life you have never stood up for anything" - Winston Churchill | "It's a testament to the sheer belligerence of the profession that people would rather argue about the 'risk-adjusted returns' of using inferior tooth cleaning methods." - kellycriterion
 

midwest_analyst

$5-10 is the base case for someone by their 30s in any professional services financial job, no? Or much much higher if you got lucky with crypto early on 

What are you smoking to be this divorced from reality? No, it is not "base case". It has never been "base case" for any career short of NBA/NFL/MLB star for a person to be worth $5m-10m in their 30s with any sort of frequency. The comp it takes to get you there + reasonable personal investment success you're talking about the top 1% outcomes or in the case of crypto, a lot of people just straight up lying on social media.

"If you don't have any enemies in life you have never stood up for anything" - Winston Churchill | "It's a testament to the sheer belligerence of the profession that people would rather argue about the 'risk-adjusted returns' of using inferior tooth cleaning methods." - kellycriterion
 

are you one of those GenZ kids that think you need a $500k salary to buy groceries for yourself?

Life is more than dollars
 
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Unless your fund is significantly increasing its size on every raise your odds of making it all the way to partner is slim to none. Most will cap out at VP/Principal which you can make by virtue of grinding it out... debatable if that's something that's till appealing in this day and age.

To play the devil's advocate, most banking VPs have better lives than their associates who have better lives than their analysts. Many/most PE VPs work as hard/harder than most associates I know and their carry is gonna be a big zero if it came out of a fund that was raised in the last few years. 

 

VP is the level people stuck in both PE and IB. Typically, very rarely do people get stuck at ED or Principal mostly because for both you have to show the skills needed for the final step up and it's much easier to go down market from a BB/EB or an respectable PE firm to get the promotion to either MD or Partner. Know a lot of EDs a few years above me who have gone downmarket as well as Principals a few years above me who I now cover as junior partners at different firms. Think people usually go downmarket if they can't crack the promotion internally within 4-5 years. Much harder for a VP though since it's the equivalent of the max rank purely by coasting. Know multiple 5+ years with no promotions or success at lateraling to a decent place VP's both in BB/EB world and PE world, the only place I see those kinds end up is significantly down market which makes it impossible to go downmarket for the MD/Partner promotion.

 

I think this was true years back. Past several years most VPs got promoted in many areas of buyside (credit in particular but not sure about PE). Out of curiosity, I did a look back of old PE profile pages on way back machine and have yet to see any decent firm where VPs didn’t get promoted or move into a better seat elsewhere 

 

I know most jr folks in this industry are focused on making partner (rightfully so), but to get the outsized outcomes everyone talks about here ($25M+ NW), you have to last 5-10 years as a partner imo. 

Partner in PE is a risk taking seat and one where you will still be working your ass off and face internal politics at least until you have a proven track record.  Think long and hard if (i) you are a deal junkie and believe in your fund's investment strategy long term, (ii) want to be working that hard through your 40's (and maybe 50's), and (iii) are okay putting your ass on the line to get a deal done.

Boils down to do you enjoy the dealmaking work and do you think you can be good at it long term?  If the answer is yes, then you just need to go find seats where you can prove it.

 

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