Banks earn revenue from fees on deals (and deal flow is heavily exposed to macroeconomic fluctuations). Asset managers earn revenue from management fees (on AUM raised in previous cycles, and new fundraising tends to be less exposed to macroeconomic fluctuations) . Performance fees may be harder to come by but management fees by definition cover junior hiring and base salaries.

At worst, the least risk is for diversified firms that have avoided the allure of an IPO (Bain, I guess?) 

 
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Very rarely. They have a much longer return cycle and can sit tight and generate revenue off of investments made in the last few years. Bankers are totally beholden to the "right now" of hot or cold deal markets.

Think you could see layoffs in a prolonged market depression (3-4+ years) as returns would compress, exits become scarce and difficult to finance new deals. But that doesn't really happen, the market moves in cycles and PE firms are aware of it

Finally, banks way overhired and yanked up pay in 2021 as they were underwater with deals, they have a lot of extra hands and higher comp on deck right now. PE firms did not overhire or raise salaries nearly as much, so they have a lot less to cut in the first place

 

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