Case study, public LBO Ticker Price vs FY EBITDA

Company XYZ reported earnings publicly 12/31/2022 for example for FY 9/30/2022, the case study assumes transaction close at FY 9/30/2022 using financials from the 10-K.

Stock closing price was $16.00 per share at 9/30/2022 and did not reflect the earnings for LTM which aren't released till later in December. If you were doing a live deal, you would be looking at LTM and thus have this confidential information in your LBO model.. the LTM took a hit from $100M to $50M (bad year for mature company) for FY9/30/2022 (Since LTM would be effectively FY for 22 if close is at year end?)

How would I incorporate that in my offer price if technically the stock price should be lower based on that information (the stock took a 20% dive after earnings released in December)? Typically all of the LBO models I've practiced are trading price + premium and not based in this weird timing scenario.

Also If I used LTM EBITDA (FY 9/30/22 EBITDA) with stock price at close (9/30) + premium.. the capital structure is messed up for a LBO (closer to 20% leverage because the FY22 EBITDA took such a large hit relative to current market value).