Odd Case Study..Help! - Oil and Gas

I am just not sure what this case study is trying to accomplish. $800MM O&G fund.

All scenarios are for a 1.5 year exit of the O&G drilling parent company. You can use cash or debt to fund any of the projects.

Part one is forecasting revenues for 2 potential projects.

Within the 1.5 year timeline project 1 has a greater IRR, p2 is still negative. The revenue streams of the two are fairly close ($185k vs $170k) at 1.5 years. Since this is O&G (drilling wells) each has a different decline curve.

Here are my issues:
1) Do I just integrate the revenue and say the one with the higher rev at exit is the best option, regardless of the negative IRR within 1.5 years?

2) Do I forecast beyond 1.5 years and determine what value a potential buyer would place on the project, and how would I determine this (rev multiple maybe?) I am thinking you would use NPV to choose a project, but this would involve forecasting out the well declines for 20 years, and I do not want to over complicate the case study. And, with an exit in 1.5 years, does NPV matter all the same?

3) Lets say project one has a faster payback period, and thus higher IRR, but lower revenue at sale (1.5 years) and faster decline. What project is the better option?

Part two is acquisition of a company and the details are scant. Target one has 150k/month EBITDA for a purchase price of $28MM, target 2 costs $1MM, producing $30k revenue per month.

Issues:
1) Again on the integration….just add ebitda of P1 to parent and determine if that is better for $28MM than running $30k revenue (and associate expenses) through the parent financials?

To summarize, the case involves evaluating two revenue streams and two acquisitions, but only revenue or EBITDA is provided. How would you evaluate these projects?

Finally, when considering using debt or cash, how do you do it for a project that has various outflows and no real purchase price? I am used to seeing cfs that are Co=purchase price, C1=first cash flow. But these “projects” do not have a “purchase” price. In the real world you would use a LOC, but that is not an option here.

 

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