PE sector specialist in dead end

Hi all,

I've hit a dead end mid career and would like to hear any opinion on what to do.

TL;DR: I'm a sector specialist in PE; terrible, risky firm but promotion end of year; What do?

Background - all about 🍅s

• Everything I've done is somehow related to my sector, for simplicity let's say tomatoes 🍅
• Master's degree in 🍅 at a good university
• 1 year working in the 🍅 fields next to college, full time to fund tuition, didn't like the actual industry work
• 2 years working in 🍅 trading, at an industrial but set up like a fund
• 2 years at MBB working in 🍅 but also CorpFin, restructuring and PE advisory often related to my speciality
• CFA on top to round it off

Last two years - the 🍅 fund

• A specialist fund manager lured me in with great career progression, soon a carry, and most importantly an investment role in 🍅
• Surprise, it was all lies, we don't actually have a carry and nothing's moving
• My boss, a complete moron through and through, pitched a strategy that's completely unviable given the firm's overall strategy but no one stopped him 
• This company doesn't care about 🍅 at all and 80% of my team's purpose is kind of useless, so they fired him. 
• Just as we went out the door, he dropped a grenade killing my promotion and bonus. Partners say my rating is unfair but it's the rules (sad excuse to save on staff cost)
• Ultimately, the firm is operating close to a scam. They chase super long-term, high-profile deals and overpay whatever it takes by making up assumptions to justify the IRR. 0% interest rates and marketing led to explosive AUM growth.
• Now after almost 10 years since the first fund and billions of capital deployed, cracks are showing - an IRR you can always fake with future assumptions, but not cash yield
• Firm is toxic af, most people hate working here but it's not that easy to leave

Situation now - 🍅 are rotting

• I'm stuck in this useless team, not learning much about 🍅 and falling behind
• Finance wise I've learnt what there is to learn. Only gap in my skillset is really deal negotiation as I'm generally not a deal lead. 
• Ok money, 200k this year in a HCOL European city, 750k saved so can take risks
• VP next year to ~250k, less than at MBB actually 
• Bodies in the cellar are starting to smell 
  • Growth could stall completely given high interest rates killing interest in alternatives
  • Funds not delivering at all, some threats of investors to go to secondary market
  • Funds could blow up given lots of structural risk from fund debt and unfunded commitments

Options - any opinions welcome

• Stay for VP and then see
• Leave to competitor 🍅 fund with good (and long) track record as Deal VP, probably 220-250k, could be good chance to learn but lower comp and again a jump in my CV
• Leave to new 🍅 fund by HF founder/entrepreneur who raised a couple 100m worth of existing 🍅 assets to fund raise on the back of, could negotiate high comp and equity but high risk of stalling quickly. 🍅 industry isn't magic, I don't think I can beat the market by any means but could follow a strategy with higher risk premia and hope it works/investors give me more money.
• Straight to the Middle East for whatever role
• Back to MBB, their PE advisory arms always take someone back from the buy side

Closing thoughts - cynical rant warning

• Zero interest rate policies messed up evaluation of risk - institutionals chase any IRR they know is made up as the allocating manager will have fake but stable private market returns and a new job when their choice blows up (also check Clifford Asness' Volatility Laundering articles)
• Many institutionals have 0 right to dabble in alternatives, especially 🍅 are complex. You barely understand your 60/40 fund's interest exposure, stay away from this or grandma loses her pension
• Governance and alignment of interest is everything. Some fund managers like ours don't even try to earn a carry, they plow your money into the next best deal. The more they overpay, the more management fee.
• An analyst on 5 hours of sleep will make up any number the MDs pressure them to if it gets them to bed early