Pushed out: dumb question

It's likely all of the above, the longer you go in PE, the harder it gets to switch to something else. Corp Dev is typically a downmarket move, so that's probably on the table for a while. For HFs, once you get to a VP in PE, it would likely be tougher to move to a great HF. You don't see too many folks making that lateral. It would typically happen post 2 and out if anything. 

To me, getting pushed out is kind of the game with any job/career. In PE, you have the early years to build a technical skillset and hopefully get a little lucky on some good deals/portcos you can "claim" as your own. VP/Principal years you need to build into more of a project mgmt type of role, while also bringing in new business.

As with everything, it's a mix of luck, skill, and timing. Years ago, I think PE was likely more appealing given the lack of market saturation and greater opportunity. I talked to older folks in the industry at good funds who basically joined a growing fund out of banking, and have stayed for a while, made partner and have made a lot of money. That's not to say these people aren't bright and hardworking, but they've essentially gotten very rich on a W2 job, which is very rare. Many of them haven't done anything extraordinary in terms of sourcing deals, executing deals, running companies ,etc. They were just pedigreed finance professionals who joined idk...Thoma, MDP, New Mountain, etc some of the funds formed in the mid to late 90s and worked their way up over time. Basically same thing today if you joined a BB bank as an analyst and just never left. 

Today it's more competitive so in my opinion, it's harder to join a good fund and just hope that if you work hard you'll make partner in ~10 years. More likely than not, you'll get 2 and outed or maybe you'll get to stay to VP/Principal, but beyond you'll just be waiting/hoping that the partners are benevolent and either leave in a timely fashion or cut you into the carry, both of which are rare and need to be earned. Any founding partner is likely to think, rightly so, that they formed the fund and did the hard work taking risk to raise money, find deals, etc, so why should you even has close to an equal amount of carry for just being a worked bee at the firm. So you need to really show something special or.... you get pushed out and you try your luck at another firm. And then the cycle repeats.