2024 transaction volume
What are your thoughts on transaction volume moving forward? Thoughts on fed rate cuts? Thoughts on overall market outlook for the next few years?
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I don’t think Fed cuts rates this year. There’s no justification for it as inflation is not yet at the level that Fed desires. I think this will force a lot of sponsors to wake up and face the music. This means actually selling the assets that they’re desperately holding to with the hope of rate cuts. As such, transaction volume will pick up.
I work in industrial investment sales (institutional level) in TX; we have teams that cover the entire US, and this theme has been consistent throughout:
So far in 2024, we have seen an uptick in industrial transactions, and even with the recent uptick in the 10Y Treasury, deals are still closing without price adjustments.
That said, I think a lot of groups that have considered selling in 2024 are now reconsidering. Many BOV conversations have been centered around assuming pricing improves (increases) as the year goes on, which was largely based on assumed rate cuts and more liquidity.
Overall, equity is much more optimistic this year, as a lot of it has been on the sidelines the previous 18-24 months.
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