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Seeing lots of layoffs. Heard through the grapevine Trammel Crow had some layoffs. Market is brutal right now. Seems super competitive as lots of laid off people and barely any openings. Most openings seem to be AM/PM and not even many of those. Not sure if anyone else is having any luck right now. Could easily be in a recession/slowdown for the next 18 months. Wonder if we see sellers start to budge and more transactions by Q4 2023 or at least some more opportunistic shops hire acquisitions in preparation. Seeing a lot of "extend and pretend till 2024" from sellers who are praying the Fed cuts rates soon.

 

A worst case scenario for everyone (RE, PE, etc. which will then in turn affect everyone else) is rates stay high through all of 2024.  There are significant maturity walls in 2025 in the Leveraged Loan space and PE firms (particularly for rated BSL deals) will need to refi before their facilities go current i.e., they need to refi in 2024: https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/near-term-leveraged-loan-maturity-w…

Result? More BKs, more layoffs, more dominos continuing to fall. 

 
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