Learned to model, what to do now?
Hi, I have learned to model commercial real estate now. But how do I actually come up with reasonable assumptions to use and what sources of information can I use to support my assumptions? Anyone with experience tells me what the definite 'what not to do's' when also coming up with assumptions too?
Here is the secret....use 3% growth for rents and 3% growth for expenses. Add 50bps for exit cap rate.
Ta Da!
aka become an Appraiser?
Don't forget a steady market vacancy of 3-5%!
Lol noob. 3% rent growth 1.5% expense growth FTW
ha, yeah. FTW at acquisition. FL(L?), at disposition
Well, the next step would involve you having some type of familiarity of the real world market. So, you could either try developing models with realistic assumptions or you could develop models with actual assumptions. Getting your hands on actual assumptions could be tough because companies don’t just post all of their deal info online. Focus on constructing realistic assumptions. Ex : In NYC, realistic going-in cap rates are typically between around 4%-5%. IRRs on an opportunistic deal exceed 20%. Remember to also practice implementing complexity in your modeling like creating a dynamic drop down list for purchase price, using Index/Match, SUMIFs, etc. In a professional role, your models will be the basis for what is presented to senior executives so you want to be thorough.
Well, then you are true a "numbers masseuse" now, but will give "Rub and Plugs" for your special clients
Now you take some headshots, get an agent, and hope you get booked for a photoshoot.
Honestly though, it's hard to model a deal in the abstract and make the actual returns meaningful. Your assumptions will change depending on where you live, what the product type is, what the construction method is, what the market looks like at that point in time, etc. The more important thing is to understand all of the levers and how they interact with the deal so you know how to pull them once you're actually in the workforce.
Could you give an example from a past deal you have done/ looked at? Even though I already know I will become a 'numbers masseuse', I think it would be helpful to have a clear understanding and picture of how assumptions are tested, and how third party data/ reports are also used in assessing assumptions.
Past deal:
CEO(worth $200mm-$500mm): "Just use a 3% growth rate because that's what rents have increased historically"
All your other assumptions will come from leasing brokers, debt brokers, and AM/Property Management.
So this is how it works in real life:
Then, after all of that, for us at least, you look at the exit year Yield (or Return on Cost) and the JV Partner IRR. The yield needs to hit your company's target and the Equity IRR needs to hit what investors are looking for. (For us right now, a 6.75 yield is solid and a 17%-18% IRR will get our equity to bite off on it.) If either of them are close, you dig into the numbers a bit more and massage them until the deal works or you realize it doesn't.
Retire - you've hit the pinnacle of investment analysis
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