Taking bets: how long do you think current inflation will last?
Last 2 inflation periods in US lasted 10 years each - taking bets on how long you think it will be this time around. Will be interesting to come back in the near future and review comments.
$100 on current inflation lasting from 2022-2027
I think the Fed is serious so I will bet 2 more years before enough shit has crumbled for inflation to be back down.
Understood, thanks, just to record your post with a time stamp i.e. 2022-2024
This guy is dedicated to the integrity of the historical record.
Does your prediction also come with a comment on how much shit crumbles and how badly? 2 years seems like a short time to make a lot happen.
let me get my crystal ball out for you.. ( shaking that ball hard for an answer, and... ) - ' it all will be fine at the end'. © JK crystal ball brokerage research
My bet is we'll be close to approaching target by end of 2024.
What's tricky is that the overwhelming majority of the inflation print at this point is housing. And as we all know that number can be sticky.
We shall see, place your bets ladies and gents.
By end of 2024, are you perhaps referring to early November 2024?
So 2024 peak and than 1 year with rate cuts, taking the inflation cycle to 2025?
No I'm saying I expect inflation close to 3% by end of next year. If you're asking whether rates peak this year I would certainly bet on that. I don't see any reason inflation should spike above last years high at this stage. Consumer spending power has eroded dramatically, credit cycle is a shit show and bound to unwind shortly, and I don't see the fed letting off till we all cry for mercy. I don't expect cuts till we're inside 4% inflation.
Things are already breaking, and we haven't even raised rates very high, yet. We have already had to bail out banks, causing more inflation. The fed cannot raise rates any faster or we will see mass financial turmoil and then, guess what? We bail out the banks some more, causing even more inflation. The fed has to pause for a period of time--I would guess 3-4 months before another .50% hike.
We are stuck with 6% inflation or more for around 10 years is my guess. More if we have war.
Good point, it's an illusive obvious that war drives core inflation a lot - all the billions donated by US someone will have to pay for at some point, not to mention energy prices up coupled with food and other necessities - not sure how accurate the reported inflation # is...
Can you explain how bailing out banks lead to inflation? And wars typically tend to cause inflation, not reduce it, because of supply/demand shocks and diverted resources, which is why historically governments have instituted price controls during wars.
My guess is that he means more cash floating around whereas no bailouts would lead to capital constraints and stricter lending (less cash).
Now fed is probably going to have to lower rates sooner than they would have liked so that doesn't help the picture either.
All money in circulation increases inflation by definition. When it comes to tax payers--inflation is just another tax, only it CAN be hedged against. If we are not paying directly by increased income taxes or other taxes, we are paying by the devaluing of our wealth (cash wealth, generally.)
These people who were bailed out did not lose their money; this means that this money can still be spent, can buy food, housing, etc., which means that it is taking that food, housing, etc. away from another buyer or making it more expensive for them to purchase these things (inflation.) The increase in the demand side vs the supply side is still inflation.
Funny but so true. I don't have empirical data but I'm a single dude who lives alone and I can tell you that my expenses are way up for basic necessities within past 18 months. My groceries still cost 25%-30% more. I'll admit the price of gas has gone down since summer but it's still up overall since summer 2021. Eating out costs 20%-25% (I live in NYC where most restaurants were already expensive pre-inflation). My car insurance has risen 15%-20% although I never had an accident/ticket and I still have the same car. The only thing that has not increased for me is telephone bill and internet.
3-5 years would be my bet.
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