Taking bets: how long do you think current inflation will last?

Last 2 inflation periods in US lasted 10 years each - taking bets on how long you think it will be this time around. Will be interesting to come back in the near future and review comments.


Historical US inflation cycles


Historical investment returns during last inflation period

 
Most Helpful

No I'm saying I expect inflation close to 3% by end of next year. If you're asking whether rates peak this year I would certainly bet on that. I don't see any reason inflation should spike above last years high at this stage. Consumer spending power has eroded dramatically, credit cycle is a shit show and bound to unwind shortly, and I don't see the fed letting off till we all cry for mercy. I don't expect cuts till we're inside 4% inflation. 

 

Things are already breaking, and we haven't even raised rates very high, yet. We have already had to bail out banks, causing more inflation. The fed cannot raise rates any faster or we will see mass financial turmoil and then, guess what? We bail out the banks some more, causing even more inflation. The fed has to pause for a period of time--I would guess 3-4 months before another .50% hike.

We are stuck with 6% inflation or more for around 10 years is my guess. More if we have war.

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Good point, it's an illusive obvious that war drives core inflation a lot - all the billions donated by US someone will have to pay for at some point, not to mention energy prices up coupled with food and other necessities - not sure how accurate the reported inflation # is...

 

My guess is that he means more cash floating around whereas no bailouts would lead to capital constraints and stricter lending (less cash). 
 

Now fed is probably going to have to lower rates sooner than they would have liked so that doesn’t help the picture either. 

 

All money in circulation increases inflation by definition. When it comes to tax payers--inflation is just another tax, only it CAN be hedged against. If we are not paying directly by increased income taxes or other taxes, we are paying by the devaluing of our wealth (cash wealth, generally.)

These people who were bailed out did not lose their money; this means that this money can still be spent, can buy food, housing, etc., which means that it is taking that food, housing, etc. away from another buyer or making it more expensive for them to purchase these things (inflation.) The increase in the demand side vs the supply side is still inflation.

Array
 

Funny but so true. I don’t have empirical data but I’m a single dude who lives alone and I can tell you that my expenses are way up for basic necessities within past 18 months. My groceries still cost 25%-30% more. I’ll admit the price of gas has gone down since summer but it’s still up overall since summer 2021. Eating out costs 20%-25% (I live in NYC where most restaurants were already expensive pre-inflation). My car insurance has risen 15%-20% although I never had an accident/ticket and I still have the same car. The only thing that has not increased for me is telephone bill and internet. 

 

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