Those at CRE Lending shops, are you busy or do you see a downturn coming?
Just accepted a job offer at a very well known shop but I am frequently hearing of people saying we may see a downturn/recession. I am quite worried I will not have much work and maybe even see potential layoffs within our originations department?
Would love to hear your thoughts.
Slow down is already here, more established firms will have more traction since they usually have bigger borrowers, aka companies that are doing larger projects they won't delay on.
Only issue in a bigger shop they are quicker to lay people off. Smaller shops can reposition people since they are usually understaffed in a time of hiring. No word in my BBG chats from bigger buyers of layoffs within their firms.
No one here knows where you accepted an offer. So no one can really assist you. Even then, no one will know the financial situation of your firm. The real question you need to ask and understand is how does your firm get paid? Is it a fund? If so, the fees should be pretty consistent. If it raises capital on a deal by deal basis, fees are less consistent. I don’t really know any lenders that do the latter but I’m sure it’s out there. Lastly, analysts are the cheapest and usually last to get fired if need be.
Don't worry about the firm or the industry. Begin building relationships with buyers and cultivate those and you can take them with you if you get laid off due to a down turn.
As for if we are in a downturn the answer is yes. My family office is seeing a ton of deals come back to us that we bid on but lost out on 2 to 3 months ago. We are heavy buyers right now.
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